Peter A. Clark

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

The Convective Storm Initiation Project

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety ofground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawinsondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

How Do Atmospheric Rivers Form

AbstractThe term “atmospheric river” is used to describe corridors of strong water vapor transport in the troposphere. Filaments of enhanced water vapor, commonly observed in satellite imagery extending from the subtropics to the extratropics, are routinely used as a proxy for identifying these regions of strong water vapor transport. The precipitation associated with these filaments of enhanced water vapor can lead to high-impact flooding events. However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper, the authors analyze the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front that sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone’s warm sector, not long-distance transport of w...

COLPEX: Field and Numerical Studies over a Region of Small Hills

During stable nighttime periods, large variations in temperature and visibility often occur over short distances in regions of only moderate topography. These are of great practical significance and yet pose major forecasting challenges because of a lack of detailed understanding of the processes involved and because crucial topographic variations are often not resolved in current forecast models. This paper describes a field and numerical modeling campaign, Cold-Air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX), which addresses many of the issues. The observational campaign was run for 15 months in Shropshire, United Kingdom, in a region of small hills and valleys with typical ridge–valley heights of 75–150 m and valley widths of 1–3 km. The instrumentation consisted of three sites with instrumented flux towers, a Doppler lidar, and a network of 30 simpler meteorological stations. Further instrumentation was deployed during intensive observation periods including radiosonde launches from two sites, a cloud droplet probe, ...

Network QoS for Grid Systems

Grid users may wish to have fine-grained control of quality of service (QoS) guarantees in a network in order to allow timely data transfer in a distributed application environment. We present a discussion of the issues and problems involved, with some critical analysis. We propose possible solutions by making reference to and analysing existing work. Also, we describe the mechanisms being proposed as part of a work-in-progress (being conducted by the authors) that uses a peer-to-peer approach to micro-manage network capacity allocations at the edge of the network, at end-sites, in a multi-domain scenario. Scheduling controllers at the end-sites are employed, which are subject to local administrative controls and have flexibility in resource allocation based on user requests for network capacity. We highlight the issues in scaling such systems to large numbers of users and the issues concerning the interfaces available to applications and end-users for accessing such services.

One-dimensional site-specific forecasting of radiation fog. Part I: Model formulation and idealised sensitivity studies

The Met. Office currently operates a high resolution mesoscale model that provides guidance on the likely formation of radiation fog on the spatial scale of 30–40 km. A project has been under way to build a Site-Specific Forecast Model (SSFM) using a one-dimensional version of the Met. Office Unified Model as a basis, with suitable modifications to its surface treatment driven by output from three-dimensional NWP models. The SSFM has been applied to the forecasting of radiation fog as part of the European Commission sponsored project 4MIDaBLE (4Dimensional Met. Information DataBase Linked across Europe). The first part of this paper describes the model formulation and discusses its behaviour simulating radiation fog in idealised cases and its sensitivity to geostrophic wind speed and initial humidity. In addition to the expected sensitivity to wind and humidity, it has been found that the treatment of surface exchange processes can have a small but significant impact on the formation of fog, its formation and clearance times and its depth. Copyright

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North-Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature, these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting-jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

The DYMECS Project: A Statistical Approach for the Evaluation of Convective Storms in High-Resolution NWP Models

Abstract A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) project is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, the authors have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. They have related these structures to storm life cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the U.K. radar network and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which they ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. T...

Urban Surface Energy Balance Models: Model Characteristics and Methodology for a Comparison Study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

Observations of cloud chemistry during longrange transport of power plant plumes

Measurements of the chemical composition of cloud water have been made as part of a programme to study the chemical development of power plant plumes in trajectories over the North Sea. During a two-day study (28–29 January 1981), the conditions were anticyclonic with light winds advecting the plume from the NE coast of England towards Denmark. The mixing layer overland was capped by stratocumulus beneath a very strong subsidence inversion, which resulted in the plume being entirely trapped within the layer. Low level acceleration occurred as the plume travelled towards the coast, accompanied by a shallowing of the mixing layer. This led to the unusual situation whereby the plume was confined to a shallow (400m) stratocumulus-filled boundary layer throughout most of its travel. The light winds enabled approximately Lagrangian sampling of the plume after about 5 and 22 h travel (~ 100 and 650km from source). The very shallow boundary layer constrained the dilution of the plume to such an extent that even though ambient O3 was consumed within the plume by the reaction with NO, the NO2NOx ratio was still < 0.5 along the plume centre line after 22 h travel. The measurements have been compared with the predictions of a reactive plume model involving both gas phase and solution phase chemistry. The model predicts oxidation rates for SO2 in the ambient air outside the plume to be substantially higher than those within the plume, at values of 0.5–1.0 and ~ 0.04 % h−1, respectively. This leads to the conclusion that nearly all the sulphate in the plume arose from entrainment of sulphate produced in cloud droplets outside the plume. The absence of an effective oxidation mechanism in solution for the conversion of NOx to HNO3 suggests that nitrate in the cloud water was derived from the gas phase oxidation of NOx. HC1 was found to be the major contributor to cloud water acidity in the plume on this occasion. The resultant acidity suppressed the solubility of SO2 and this together with the low oxidant levels inhibited the production of sulphate in solution within the plume. The HCl contribution to acidity had declined markedly after 22h travel and this loss corresponds to a dry deposition velocity of 13 mm s−1.