Peter E. Thornton

Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain

Abstract A method for generating daily surfaces of temperature, precipitation, humidity, and radiation over large regions of complex terrain is presented. Required inputs include digital elevation data and observations of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation from ground-based meteorological stations. Our method is based on the spatial convolution of a truncated Gaussian weighting filter with the set of station locations. Sensitivity to the typical heterogeneous distribution of stations in complex terrain is accomplished with an iterative station density algorithm. Spatially and temporally explicit empirical analyses of the relationships of temperature and precipitation to elevation were performed, and the characteristic spatial and temporal scales of these relationships were explored. A daily precipitation occurrence algorithm is introduced, as a precursor to the prediction of daily precipitation amount. Surfaces of humidity (vapor pressure deficit) are generated as a function of the predicted daily minimum temperature and the predicted daily average daylight temperature. Daily surfaces of incident solar radiation are generated as a function of Sun-slope geometry and interpolated diurnal temperature range. The application of these methods is demonstrated over an area of approximately 400 000 detailed illustration of the parameterization process. A cross-validation analysis was performed, comparing predicted and observed daily and annual average values. Mean absolute errors (MAE) for predicted annual average maximum and minimum temperature were 0.7°C and 1.2°C, with biases of +0.1°C and −0.1°C, respectively. MAE for predicted annual total precipitation was 13.4 cm, or, expressed as a percentage of the observed annual totals, 19.3%. The success rate for predictions of daily precipitation occurrence was 83.3%. Particular attention was given to the predicted and observed relationships between precipitation frequency and intensity, and they were shown to be similar. We tested the sensitivity of these methods to prediction grid-point spacing, and found that areal averages were unchanged for grids ranging in spacing from 500 m to 32 km. We tested the dependence of the results on timestep, and found that the temperature prediction algorithms scale perfectly in this respect. Temporal scaling of precipitation predictions was complicated by the daily occurrence predictions, but very nearly the same predictions were obtained at daily and annual timesteps.

A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation responses to interannual climatic variability

Regional phenology is important in ecosystem simulation models and coupled biosphere/atmosphere models. In the continental United States, the timing of the onset of greenness in the spring (leaf expansion, grass green-up) and offset of greenness in the fall (leaf abscission, cessation of height growth, grass brown-oft) are strongly influenced by meteorological and climatological conditions. We developed predictive phenology models based on traditional phenology research using commonly available meteorological and climatological data. Predictions were compared with satellite phenology observations at numerous 20 km x 20 km contiguous landcover sites. Onset mean absolute error was 7.2 days in the deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) biome and 6.1 days in the grassland biome. Offset mean absolute error was 5.3 days in the DBF biome and 6.3 days in the grassland biome. Maximum expected errors at a 95% probability level ranged from 10 to 14 days. Onset was strongly associated with temperature summations in both grassland and DBF biomes; DBF offset was best predicted with a photoperiod function, while grassland offset required a combination of precipitation and temperature controls. A long-term regional test of the DBF onset model captured field-measured interannual variability trends in lilac phenology. Continental application of the phenology models for 1990-1992 revealed extensive interannual variability in onset and offset. Median continental growing season length ranged from a low of 129 days in 1991 to a high of 146 days in 1992. Potential uses of the models include regulation of the timing and length of the growing season in large-scale biogeochemical models and monitoring vegetation response to interannual climatic variability.

Modeling and measuring the effects of disturbance history and climate on carbon and water budgets in evergreen needleleaf forests

The effects of disturbance history, climate, and changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and nitrogen deposition (Ndep) on carbon and water fluxes in seven North American evergreen forests are assessed using a coupled water–carbon–nitrogen model, canopy-scale flux observations, and descriptions of the vegetation type, management practices, and disturbance histories at each site. The effects of interannual climate variability, disturbance history, and vegetation ecophysiology on carbon and water fluxes and storage are integrated by the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC, with results compared to site biometric analyses and eddy covariance observations aggregated by month and year. Model results suggest that variation between sites in net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) is largely a function of disturbance history, with important secondary effects from site climate, vegetation ecophysiology, and changing atmospheric CO2 and Ndep. The timing and magnitude of fluxes following disturbance depend on disturbance type and intensity, and on post-harvest management treatments such as burning, fertilization and replanting. The modeled effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 on NEE are generally limited by N availability, but are greatly increased following disturbance due to increased N mineralization and reduced plant N demand. Modeled rates of carbon sequestration over the past 200 years are driven by the rate of change in CO2 concentration for old sites experiencing low rates of N dep. The model produced good estimates of between-site variation in leaf area index, with mixed performance for between- and within-site variation in evapotranspiration. There is a model bias

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of the BIOME–BGC Terrestrial Ecosystem Model: Net Primary Production Controls

Abstract Ecosystem simulation models use descriptive input parameters to establish the physiology, biochemistry, structure, and allocation patterns of vegetation functional types, or biomes. For single-stand simulations it is possible to measure required data, but as spatial resolution increases, so too does data unavailability. Generalized biome parameterizations are then required. Undocumented parameter selection and unknown model sensitivity to parameter variation for larger-resolution simulations are currently the major limitations to global and regional modeling. The authors present documented input parameters for a process-based ecosystem simulation model, BIOME–BGC, for major natural temperate biomes. Parameter groups include the following: turnover and mortality; allocation; carbon to nitrogen ratios (C:N); the percent of plant material in labile, cellulose, and lignin pools; leaf morphology; leaf conductance rates and limitations; canopy water interception and light extinction; and the percent of...

Global Terrestrial Gross and Net Primary Productivity from the Earth Observing System

Probably the single most fundamental measure of “global change” of highest practical interest to humankind is the change in terrestrial biological productivity. Biological productivity is the source of all the food, fiber, and fuel by which humans survive, and so defines most fundamentally the habitability of Earth. The spatial variability of net primary productivity (NPP) over the globe is enormous, from about 1000 g Cm-2 for evergreen tropical rain forests to less than 30 g Cm-2 for deserts (Scurlock et al. 1999). With increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and global climate change, NPP over large areas may be changing (Myneni et al. 1997a, VEMAP 1995, Melillo et al. 1993). Understanding regional variability in carbon cycle processes requires a more spatially detailed analysis of global land surface processes. Since December 1999, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) produces a regular global estimate of (gross primary productivity, GPP) and annual NPP of the entire terrestrial earth surface at 1-km spatial resolution, 150 million cells, each having GPP and NPP computed individually.

The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

Abstract Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on the simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack tha...

The Partitioning of Evapotranspiration into Transpiration, Soil Evaporation, and Canopy Evaporation in a GCM: Impacts on Land–Atmosphere Interaction

Abstract Although the global partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) into transpiration, soil evaporation, and canopy evaporation is not well known, most current land surface schemes and the few available observations indicate that transpiration is the dominant component on the global scale, followed by soil evaporation and canopy evaporation. The Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), however, does not reflect this global view of ET partitioning, with soil evaporation and canopy evaporation far outweighing transpiration. One consequence of this unrealistic ET partitioning in CLM3 is that photosynthesis, which is linked to transpiration through stomatal conductance, is significantly underestimated on a global basis. A number of modifications to CLM3 vegetation and soil hydrology parameterizations are described that improve ET partitioning and reduce an apparent dry soil bias in CLM3. The modifications reduce canopy interception and evaporation, reduce soil moisture stress on transpiration, increase transp...

Oak forest carbon and water simulations: model intercomparisons and evaluations against independent data

Models represent our primary method for integration of small-scale, process- level phenomena into a comprehensive description of forest-stand or ecosystem function. They also represent a key method for testing hypotheses about the response of forest ecosystems to multiple changing environmental conditions. This paper describes the eval- uation of 13 stand-level models varying in their spatial, mechanistic, and temporal com- plexity for their ability to capture intra- and interannual components of the water and carbon cycle for an upland, oak-dominated forest of eastern Tennessee. Comparisons between model simulations and observations were conducted for hourly, daily, and annual time steps. Data for the comparisons were obtained from a wide range of methods including: eddy covariance, sapflow, chamber-based soil respiration, biometric estimates of stand-level net primary production and growth, and soil water content by time or frequency domain reflectometry. Response surfaces of carbon and water flux as a function of environmental drivers, and a variety of goodness-of-fit statistics (bias, absolute bias, and model efficiency) were used to judge model performance. A single model did not consistently perform the best at all time steps or for all variables considered. Intermodel comparisons showed good agreement for water cycle fluxes, but considerable disagreement among models for predicted carbon fluxes. The mean of all model outputs, however, was nearly always the best fit to the observations. Not surprisingly, models missing key forest components or processes, such as roots or modeled soil water content, were unable to provide accurate predictions of ecosystem responses to short-term drought phenomenon. Nevertheless, an inability to correctly capture short-term physiolog- ical processes under drought was not necessarily an indicator of poor annual water and carbon budget simulations. This is possible because droughts in the subject ecosystem were of short duration and therefore had a small cumulative impact. Models using hourly time steps and detailed mechanistic processes, and having a realistic spatial representation of the forest ecosystem provided the best predictions of observed data. Predictive ability of all models deteriorated under drought conditions, suggesting that further work is needed to evaluate and improve ecosystem model performance under unusual conditions, such as drought, that are a common focus of environmental change discussions.

Use of FLUXNET in the Community Land Model development

of 0.5–0.6 to the range of 0.7–0.9. RMSE of the simulated sensible heat fluxes decrease by 20–50%. Primary production is overestimated during the wet season in mediterranean and tropical ecosystems. This might be related to missing carbon-nitrogen dynamics as well as to site-specific parameters. The new model (CLM3.5) with an improved terrestrial water cycle should lead to more realistic land-atmosphere exchanges in coupled simulations. FLUXNET is found to be a valuable tool to develop and validate land surface models prior to their application in computationally expensive global simulations.

Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedback using a multimodel approach: Analysis of nitrogen deposition

n this study, we present the results of nitrogen deposition on land from a set of 29 simulations from six different tropospheric chemistry models pertaining to present-day and 2100 conditions. Nitrogen deposition refers here to the deposition (wet and dry) of all nitrogen-containing gas phase chemical species resulting from NOx (NO + NO2) emissions. We show that under the assumed IPCC SRES A2 scenario the global annual average nitrogen deposition over land is expected to increase by a factor of ∼2.5, mostly because of the increase in nitrogen emissions. This will significantly expand the areas with annual average deposition exceeding 1 gN/m2/year. Using the results from all models, we have documented the strong linear relationship between models on the fraction of the nitrogen emissions that is deposited, regardless of the emissions (present day or 2100). On average, approximately 70% of the emitted nitrogen is deposited over the landmasses. For present-day conditions the results from this study suggest that the deposition over land ranges between 25 and 40 Tg(N)/year. By 2100, under the A2 scenario, the deposition over the continents is expected to range between 60 and 100 Tg(N)/year. Over forests the deposition is expected to increase from 10 Tg(N)/year to 20 Tg(N)/year. In 2100 the nitrogen deposition changes from changes in the climate account for much less than the changes from increased nitrogen emissions.