Peter Westerheide

Cointegration of Real Estate Stocks and Reits with Common Stocks, Bonds and Consumer Price Inflation - an International Comparison

This paper analyses the performance of real estate securities and their relationship to other asset classes as well as to consumer price inflation in an international comparison over the period from 1990 to 2004. The analysis focuses on the long run relationships, applying three different cointegration tests. It covers the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany. Results show that real estate securities in most countries had a high performance in nominal and real terms. The average performance over the whole period (1990 – 2004) has been particularly high in capital market oriented countries in the sample (US, Australia), and also in France. Real estate securities have outperformed bond markets on a risk adjusted basis only in the US and in Australia, while an outperformance of stock markets can be observed also in Japan and France. Particularly in the period 2001 to 2004 real estate security market have soared in most countries with the notable exception of Germany. In general, real estate securities seem to represent an asset class distinct from bonds and stocks in most countries. In the long run they seem provide a potential for further diversification of asset portfolios. Additionally, real estate stocks provide a (weak) hedge against consumer price inflation in almost every country.

Psychologie, Wachstum und Reformfähigkeit

1 Einleitung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43 2 Zwei unterschiedliche Erklärungsansätze für Reformwiderstände . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44 3 Reformstau und Grundeinsichten der „Behavioural Economics“ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 4 Empirische Einsichten über reformbegünstigende Faktoren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48 5 Erzeugen Reformen Optimismus bei Konsumenten und Investoren? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 6 Reformakzeptanz im Sozialstaat und die Bedeutung sozialer Normen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 7 Reformakzeptanz im Steuersystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52 8 Reformstrategie und Kommunikationspolitik . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 9 Schlussfolgerungen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

Short-Term Borrowing for Long-Term Projects: Are Family Businesses More Susceptible to 'Irrational' Financing Choices?

There are noticeable differences between the roles that various forms of credit financing play in family businesses and in other businesses. Family businesses take out more often bank loans specifically to finance investments and innovations, and they particularly often resort to the short-term and relatively expensive option of an overdraft. How can we explain these differences in financing choices? Do family businesses tend to use shorter-term, more expensive sources of financing because they face more restrictions than other or are there other motives such as financial independence at play? Our econometric approach to these issues is to study the financing behaviour and creditworthiness. For both of these aspects, we compare family businesses with non-family-run businesses that otherwise have the same characteristics. Our results do not confirm that family businesses are faced by stronger financial constraints but they indicate that family firms are prepared to accept higher financing costs in order to preserve their financial independence.

Wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Bedeutung von Familienunternehmen

Gegenstand des Projektes ist eine umfassende Analyse des Sektors der Familienunternehmen in Deutschland unter verschiedenen Fragestellungen. Untersuchungsschwerpunkte sind die quantitative Erfassung von Familienunternehmen in Deutschland, ihre gesellschaftspolitische und soziale Verantwortung (Corporate Social Responsibility), die Nachfolgeproblematik in diesen Unternehmen, ihre Finanzierung, sowie die administrativen, steuerliche und rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen ihrer Tatigkeit Laufzeit: 15.03.2007 - 28.02.2008

Social Return on Investment of Mutual Support Based Housing Projects: Potential for Socio-Economic Cost Savings and Higher Living Quality

Our paper describes the results of a Social Return on Investment analysis of four new housing projects in Germany. A common characteristic of all projects is the central importance of mutual neighborly support to meet the demand for the assistance of older residents. All projects share some common architectural features and infrastructural characteristics. Furthermore, in each housing project, some form of support by social workers takes place. Using a propensity score matching approach, we compare for the first time systematically the costs for support of older people in mutual support based housing projects with a control group of people living in conventional settings. Our results, based on a sample of more than 700 residents, point not only to improvements in living satisfaction, but indicate also a huge potential for socio-economic cost savings. This can partly be explained by better development of residents’ health status.

Die Hoffnung auf eine schnelle Reformdividende – direkte Erwartungseffekte institutioneller Reformen

Abstract Immediate effects of institutional reforms on growth and employment are highly important for political agents who frequently have short time horizons. Positive effects of expectations are a suitable transmission channel for a fast success of economic reforms. We analyse whether economic reforms have such an immediate impact on consumer confidence and business climate. We evaluate three case studies, which are supplemented by an additional econometric country panel analysis. Although we find some evidence for positive effects of reforms on business climate, we also detect that consumers tend to react with higher caution and growing insecurity. Our contribution discusses how policy makers should react on these findings.