R. S. Stolarski

Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Recent changes in total column ozone based on the SBUV Version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Set

The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD) provides the longest available satellite-based time series of profile and total ozone from a single instrument type. The data span a 44 year period from 1970 to 2013 (except a 5 year gap in the 1970s). Data from nine independent SBUV-type instruments are included in the record, one of which is still operating. Although modifications in instrument design were made in the evolution from the Nimbus-4 Backscattered Ultraviolet instrument to the modern SBUV(/2) model, the basic principles of the measurement technique and retrieval algorithm remain the same, lending consistency to this record compared to those based on measurements using different instrument types. Nevertheless, each instrument has specific characteristics, and known anomalies must be incorporated in the MOD uncertainty estimates. In this study we describe the latest version of the MOD data set based on SBUV data processed using the Version 8.6 algorithm. We assess the measurement consistency across instruments and use this information to assign a drift uncertainty to the MOD. We then fit a multiple regression model to the MOD time series alternately using Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) or linear trend fits over varying time series segments to analyze trends. Regression results indicate a statistically significant positive trend in total ozone outside the tropics based on the EESC proxy fit to the full record, but a linear trend fit to the last 13 years of data does not yield a statistically significant ozone increase.

Seasonal Variation of Ozone in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere: Southern Tropics are Different from Northern Tropics

We examine the seasonal behavior of ozone by using measurements from various instruments including ozonesondes, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. We find that the magnitude of the annual variation in ozone, as a percentage of the mean ozone, exhibits a maximum at or slightly above the tropical tropopause. The maximum is larger in the northern tropics than in the southern tropics, and the annual maximum of ozone in the southern tropics occurs 2 months later than that in the northern tropics, in contrast to usual assumption that the tropics can be treated as a horizontally homogeneous region. The seasonal cycles of ozone and other species in this part of the lower stratosphere result from a combination of the seasonal variation of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and the seasonal variation of tropical and midlatitude mixing. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts of upwelling and mixing between the tropics and midlatitudes on ozone are in phase and additive. In the Southern Hemisphere, they are not in phase. We apply a tropical leaky pipe model independently to each hemisphere to examine the relative roles of upwelling and mixing in the northern and southern tropical regions. Reasonable assumptions of the seasonal variation of upwelling and mixing yield a good description of the seasonal magnitude and phase in both the southern and northern tropics. The differences in the tracers and transport between the northern and southern tropical stratospheres suggest that the paradigm of well-mixed tropics needs to be revised to consider latitudinal variations within the tropics.

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear, and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid 1990s is due to the decrease in ozone depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperatures anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.

Understanding differences in chemistry climate model projections of stratospheric ozone

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change ΔO3/ΔCly is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine (Cly) into its reservoirs; both Cly and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in ΔO3/ΔCly contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to Cly becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change ΔO3/ΔT due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer

The atmospheric levels of human-produced chlorocarbons and bromocarbons are projected to make only small contributions to ozone depletion by 2100. Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) will become increasingly important in determining the future of the ozone layer. N2O increases lead to increased production of nitrogen oxides (NOx), contributing to ozone depletion. CO2 increases cool the stratosphere and affect ozone levels in several ways. Cooling decreases the rate of many photochemical reactions, thus slowing ozone loss rates. Cooling also increases the chemical destruction of nitrogen oxides, thereby moderating the effect of increased N2O on ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone level projected for the end of this century therefore depends on future emissions of both CO2 and N2O. We use a two-dimensional chemical transport model to explore a wide range of values for the boundary conditions for CO2 and N2O, and find that all of the current scenarios for growth of greenhouse gases project the global average ozone to be larger in 2100 than in 1960.

NASA atmospheric effects of aviation projects: Status and plans

NASAs Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project is developing a scientific basis for assessment of the atmospheric impact of subsonic and supersonic aviation. Issues addressed include predicted ozone changes and climatic impact, and related uncertainties. A primary goal is to assist assessments of United Nations scientific organizations and, hence, consideration of emission standards by the International Civil Aviation Organization. Project focus is on simulation of atmospheric processes by computer models, but studies of aircraft operations, laboratory studies, and remote and in situ observations of chemical, dynamic, and radiative processes are also included.