Reisoli Bender Filho

Determinantes da demanda internacional de carne bovina brasileira: evidências de quebras estruturais

The purpose of this article is to verify impact variables on international demand for beef between January 1995 and June 2013. The method used was Ordinary Least Squares with Breaks, obtaining 4 breaks, 5 regimes. The independent variables in the regression were the domestic and export prices of beef, chicken and pork, besides income and the exchange rate. In the first regime, the demand for beef was elastic with regard to prices, both internal and external, the domestic chicken and beef prices. However, income elasticity was more significant. In the second regime, the relation of export prices was inelastic. The income elasticity was significant in this regime and the exchange rate had a significant impact. In the third regime, the demand was inelastic to export prices of chicken and beef and inelastic to domestic prices of the same meat. The exchange rate also had a significant impact. In the fourth regime, the demand was elastic to its domestic price and inelastic in relation to external and internal prices of chicken. The income becomes significant again. In the fifth regime, demand is elastic to the external price of pork, domestic bovine price and income. There was a significant increase trend in the second regime and recession in the first and third regimes.

CHOQUES MONETÁRIOS E TECNOLÓGICOS E AS FLUTUAÇÕES CÍCLICAS NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA

We investigated the relative importance of technological and monetary shocks for the business cycles in the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2009. In this investigation, we used the model money-in-the-utility function, which considers that holding money generates utility to the economic agents. Several simulations were performed to identify how the business cycles respond to shocks. The results indicate that, in addition to technological shocks, monetary shocks are important in explaining business cycles in the Brazilian economy during the analyzed period. Their effects on the volatility of real variables, however, were small.

DINÂMICA ECONÔMICA E CICLOS DE NEGÓCIOS NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA: EVIDÊNCIAS PARA O PERÍODO PÓS-REAL

O exame dos ciclos de negocios da economia brasileira no pos-Real faz-se tema pertinente quando considerado que esse periodo indica a existencia de choques de oferta e de demanda. Buscando testar essa evidencia, fez-se uso de dois modelos: o Money-in-the-Utilityfunction (MIU) e o Cash-in-Advanced (CIA). As economias artificiais simuladas – padrao e monetaria – mostraram maior aderencia aos fatos estilizados quando considerado o modelo com rigidez dos precos e salarios, embora o comportamento volatil das variaveis nominais nao tenha sido reproduzido completamente em ambas as economias artificiais. Todavia, os efeitos de choques monetarios nao podem ser subestimados, haja vista que possibilitaram evidenciar comportamentos caracteristicos de economias com certo grau de instabilidade.

Crédito consignado: segmentos e efeitos econômicos

Resumo : O cenario de instabilidade politica, a recessao economica e as mudancas nas regras de concessao de credito pautaram o objetivo de examinar o relacionamento do credito consignado, por segmento de concessao, com variaveis macroeconomicas, caso do consumo, da producao industrial e do produto agregado, na ultima decada (2007-2017). Os resultados foram obtidos por meio da estimacao do vetor de correcao de erros, funcoes de impulso-resposta e decomposicao da variância, possibilitando a analise das relacoes de curto e de longo prazo entre as series temporais e indicaram que as diferentes modalidades do credito consignado implicam efeitos distintos sobre as variaveis economicas em curto prazo. O segmento de aposentados e pensionistas impacta positivamente ambas as variaveis analisadas, com destaque para os bens de consumo das familias. Ja a concessao ao setor privado, embora represente a menor parcela do credito consignado concedido, mostrou elevada sensibilidade a alteracoes na oferta dessa modalidade de credito, enquanto que o credito ao setor publico, de maior participacao, apresentou efeitos reduzidos e de curta duracao. Palavras-chave : Credito consignado. Segmentos. Economia brasileira. Payroll loans: segments and economic effects Abstract : The environment of political instability, economic recession and changes in the rules of granting credit were guiders to aim to examine the payroll loans relationship, by concession segment, with macroeconomic variables, case of consumption, industrial production and aggregate product, in the last decade (2007-2017). The results obtained by error correction vector estimation, and functions of impulse-response and variance decomposition, making it possible to analyze the short- and long-term relationships between the time series and indicated that the different modalities of payroll loans imply different effects on economic short-term variables. With retirees and pensioners segment positively impact on both analyzed variables, highlighting the household consumption goods. The concession to the private sector, although it represents the smallest portion of payroll loans granted, it showed high sensitivity to the changes of this modality. About credit to the public sector, which has the biggest portion, it showed reduced and short-term effects. Keywords : Payroll loans. Segments. Brazilian economy.

ANÁLISE DO IMPACTO DO CRÉDITO RURAL NA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA BRASILEIRA NO PERÍODO 2006-2014

Num cenario em que as politicas de governo tem buscado suportar o crescimento do setor agricola, sobremaneira a partir de politicas direcionadas, o estudo objetivou examinar o impacto da concessao de credito rural sobre a producao agricola, considerando o periodo 2006-2014. Para isso, fez-se o uso da metodologia do Vetor de Correcao de Erros (VEC), a qual possibilita analisar as relacoes de curto e de longo prazo. Os resultados indicaram que, no longo prazo, impactos positivos e mais expressivos sobre a producao agricola decorreriam da ampliacao da area plantada, enquanto que, em curto prazo, o aumento passaria pelo investimento em fertilizantes e pela maior utilizacao de maquinas e implementos. Por outro lado, embora a concessao de credito rural nao tenha apresentado relacao significativa, nao se pode desconsiderar seus efeitos indiretos sobre a producao agricola.

Gastos públicos: análise da aplicacão da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal e da Constituição Federal no COREDE Alto Jacuí

Planning and public spending control are one of the most important parts of the new regime in public administration. In this context, the objective of this work is to analyze the limits established by the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) and Federal Constitution at COREDE Alto Jacui from 2005 to 2008. The analyses have indicated that the LRF is not being applied in all the cities in this study due to the fact that the ordinary and integral legal limits established have not been applied. Furthermore, it could be observed that the value spent with salaries has grown continually during the period analyzed, mainly in cities with less population and economically smaller. Although the limits invested in education and health are according to the percentage in law, the majority of the cities in this study have shown contrasting results, and many cities with similar structure have had different results considering the areas studied, leading to the conclusion that heterogeneity in terms of size (populations and taxes collected) may be not a determinant observed factor in the legal limits.

Análise de Causalidade de Preços no Mercado Internacional da Soja. O Caso do Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos

O presente artigo analisou a relacao de precedencia dos precos internacionais da soja em graos, levando em consideracao os principais exportadores mundiais, Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos, no periodo entre 2003 e 2012. Para isso, utilizou-se a metodologia de causalidade proposta por Toda e Yamamoto (1995). Os resultados indicam que nos precos da soja da Argentina existe precedencia de causalidade bidirecional significativa do Brasil. Ja os precos da soja do Brasil sofrem influencia tanto dos precos do mercado dos Estados Unidos quanto da Argentina, enquanto que os precos da commodity norte-americana mostraram relacao de precedencia dos precos argentinos.

Evolução do crédito industrial no Brasil: uma análise a partir de fatores macroeconômicos

O objetivo deste trabalho consistiu em analisar a influencia das variaveis macroeconomicas sobre o credito industrial no Brasil, no periodo pos-estabilizacao. Essa discussao tem como cenario, de um lado, a trajetoria descendente do credito industrial nos anos recentes e, de outro, as politicas expansionistas destinadas a industria. Para o alcance dos objetivos, foi estimado um modelo de correcao de erros com o qual foi possivel analisar as dinâmicas de longo e de curto prazo. Os resultados apontam para a recorrente influencia da taxa de câmbio e do produto agregado na explicacao do comportamento das operacoes de credito industrial na economia brasileira, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo. Alem disso, salientam-se os efeitos mais prolongados do produto sobre o credito industrial, enquanto que as variaveis de politica, a excecao do câmbio, apresentaram efeitos temporarios.

DESEMPENHO COMPETITIVO DA AGRICULTURA FAMILIAR EM SANTA CATARINA

The aim of this work is to identify the determinant factors of family farming competitiveness in municipalities of Santa Catarina (SC) through the Index of Competitive Performance of Family Farming (IDAF) and multiple regression analysis and also to check for significant differences in competitiveness of family farming between mesoregions that State through parametric tests of Levene and of t Student for unpaired data. A sample of 183 municipalities of Santa Catarina has been considered out of the total of 293 municipalities in this state. The data has been collected from Agricultural Census (2006), which is publicized in the website of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The results indicate that family farming in municipalities of Santa Catarina is, in general, low and intermediate level of competitiveness. The regression analysis confirmed positive relationship between the annual income and the factors of competitiveness analyzed. In addition, it was found that there are significant differences in the average competitiveness of the family farming between mesoregion of Vale do Itajai and mesoregions of Florianopolis and Serrana. Therefore, it is concluded that there is great heterogeneity in municipalities of Santa Catarina in relation to the competitive performance of family farming.

CONTA PETRÓLEO E A BALANÇA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA: UMA ANÁLISE DO PERÍODO RECENTE

In the recent years, Brazilian’s business outcome has being deteriorating, with a growing deficit for the so-called petrol account. In an effort to subsidize the discussion of this issue, this study proposed to investigate the petrol account, as well as its relation with Brazilian’s trade balance between 2000 and 2014. The results allowed the suggestion that the relation discussed has not been stable during the long term period analyzed, while the most significant influence of the balance of petroleum account on the Brazilian commercial balance has been verified after 2007, in the aftermath of the international economic crisis, and has been intensified in the recent years. After this period, the volatile behavior of petroleum account, embodied in the worsening of its deficit, in a way, has been absorbed by the country’s commercial balance, in a transferring way.