Richard Ochmann

Dynamics of Earnings and Hourly Wages in Germany

There is by now a lot of evidence showing a sharp increase in cross-sectional wage and earnings inequality during the 2000s in Germany. Our study is the first to decompose this cross-sectional variance into its permanent and transitory parts for years beyond 2000. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel on fulltime working individuals for years of 1994 to 2006, we do not find unambiguous empirical support for the frequent claims that recent increases in inequality have been driven mainly by permanent disparities. From 1994 on, permanent inequality increases continuously, peaks in 2001 but then declines in subsequent years. Interestingly the decline in the permanent fraction of inequality occurs at the time of most rapid increases in cross-sectional inequality. It seems therefore that it is primarily the temporary and not the permanent component which has driven the strong expansion of cross-sectional inequality during the 2000s in Germany.

Measuring Distributional Effects of Fiscal Reforms

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of how to analyse the distributional effects of fiscal reforms. Thereby, distributional effects shall be differentiated by four subconcepts, i.e. 1.) the traditional concept of inequality, 2.) the rather novel concept of polarisation, 3.) the concept of progression in taxation, and 4.) the concepts of income poverty and richness. The concept of inequality and the concept of income poverty are the by far most widely applied concepts in empirical analyses, probably since they appear to be the most transparent ones in their structure as well as the most controversial ones in political affairs. However, the concepts of richness, polarisation and progression in taxation shall additionally be subject of this analysis, since they appear to be useful devices on the course of analysing cause and effect of the other two concepts.

Liquidity Constraints and the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Pseudo Panel Estimation with German Consumption Survey Data

This paper empirically investigates the relevance of liquidity constraints and excess sensitivity in intertemporal household consumption. Using a pseudo panel that has been constructed on rich German consumption survey data, we estimate the consumption responses to permanent and transitory income shocks, as well as the presence of excess sensitivity to anticipated income changes. A switching regression approach with unknown sample separation is applied to identify the two regimes whether to be liquidity constrained or not. The results are used to test whether liquidity constraints affect the validity of the permanent income hypothesis. For households in the constrained regime, reactions to changes in transitory income are found to be significantly greater than for households in the unconstrained regime. Furthermore, we provide evidence for excess sensitivity to anticipated income changes for households in the constrained regime if total consumption, durable as well as non-durable, is considered.

Asset demand in the financial AIDS portfolio model-evidence from a major tax reform

In this article, new evidence from the financial Almost Ideal Demand Sysytem (AIDS) portfolio model is featured, making use of additional exogenous rate-of-return variation, which has been mostly disregarded in the relevant literature so far. A Two-Stage Budgeting Model (2SBM) of asset demand is constructed and applied to German survey data for a time frame where first implementations of a major income tax reform in Germany significantly altered the tax schedule. Marginal Tax Rates (MTR) at the household level are simulated in an income taxation module. Relatively great rate-of-return elasticities for, among others, owner-occupied housing as well as capital and private pension insurances suggest that return-related reactions are stronger at the asset allocation decision than they are usually found for the consumption-savings decision.

Distributional and Welfare Effects of Germany's Year 2000 Tax Reform

This paper empirically investigates distributional and welfare effects of Germanys year 2000 income tax reform. The reform is simulated in an ex-ante behavioral microsimulation approach. Dead weight loss of changes in capital income taxation is estimated in a structural model for household savings and asset demand applied to German survey data. Significant reductions in tax rates result in income gains for most of the households. Gains are found greater for households in higher tax brackets, whereby income inequality increases, slightly greater in East- than in West-Germany. Moreover, households increase savings and alter the structure of asset demand as a result of shifts in relative asset prices. As a consequence, utility losses reduce welfare effects for almost all households.