Richard P. Young

Plasma cell-free DNA as an indicator of severity of injury in burn patients.

Abstract Background: Raised levels of plasma cell-free DNA have been detected in various patient groups, including trauma patients. We hypothesized that plasma DNA is increased in burn patients and may represent an objective indicator of burn severity and have predictive as well as prognostic significance. Methods: This was a prospective clinical study with full ethical approval. With informed consent, blood samples were collected from 28 burn patients within 24h of injury and from 12 control subjects. Plasma cell-free DNA was measured by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the β-globin gene. Descriptive analysis, non-parametric data comparison tests (Mann-Whitney) and correlation tests (Spearman rank) were performed on the data. Results: Samples were taken at a mean time of 5.7h after injury from 13 patients with flame/flash burns and 15 patients with scalds. Median plasma DNA levels in the control, scald and flame/flash burn patient groups were 287, 648 and 2685 kilogenome-equivalents/L, respectively. Plasma DNA levels correlated with the length of hospital stay, but not with admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) nor the length of ICU stay. DNA levels correlated with the burn surface area (Spearman rank r=0.54, p=0.04) and the number of operations needed (Spearman rank r=0.55, p=0.03) for scalds, but not for flame/flash burns. Conclusions: Plasma DNA is increased after burn injury and is significantly correlated with some outcome measures, including the length of hospital stay. DNA levels are higher in flame/flash patients than in scald patients; the difference may provide an objective indication of burn depth and inhalation injury.

Experimental evidence of competitive release in sympatric carnivores

Changes in the relative abundance of sympatric carnivores can have far-reaching ecological consequences, including the precipitation of trophic cascades and species declines. While such observations are compelling, experimental evaluations of interactions among carnivores remain scarce and are both logistically and ethically challenging. Carnivores are nonetheless a particular focus of management practices owing to their roles as predators of livestock and as vectors and reservoirs of zoonotic diseases. Here, we provide evidence from a replicated and controlled experiment that culling Eurasian badgers Meles meles for disease control was associated with increases in red fox Vulpes vulpes densities of 1.6–2.3 foxes km−2. This unique experiment demonstrates the importance of intraguild relations in determining species abundance and of assessing the wider consequences of intervention in predator populations.

How to save the rarest Darwin's finch from extinction: the mangrove finch on Isabela Island.

Habitat destruction and predation by invasive alien species has led to the disappearance of several island populations of Darwins finches but to date none of the 13 recognized species have gone extinct. However, driven by rapid economic growth in the Galápagos, the effects of introduced species have accelerated and severely threatened these iconic birds. The critically endangered mangrove finch (Camarhynchus heliobates) is now confined to three small mangroves on Isabela Island. During 2006–2009, we assessed its population status and monitored nesting success, both before and after rat poisoning. Population size was estimated at around only 100 birds for the two main breeding sites, with possibly 5–10 birds surviving at a third mangrove. Before rat control, 54 per cent of nests during incubation phase were predated with only 18 per cent of nests producing fledglings. Post-rat control, nest predation during the incubation phase fell to 30 per cent with 37 per cent of nests producing fledglings. During the nestling phase, infestation by larvae of the introduced parasitic fly (Philornis downsi) caused 14 per cent additional mortality. Using population viability analysis, we simulated the probability of population persistence under various scenarios of control and showed that with effective management of these invasive species, mangrove finch populations should start to recover.

BIOFRAG - a new database for analyzing BIOdiversity responses to forest FRAGmentation

Habitat fragmentation studies have produced complex results that are challenging to synthesize. Inconsistencies among studies may result from variation in the choice of landscape metrics and response variables, which is often compounded by a lack of key statistical or methodological information. Collating primary datasets on biodiversity responses to fragmentation in a consistent and flexible database permits simple data retrieval for subsequent analyses. We present a relational database that links such field data to taxonomic nomenclature, spatial and temporal plot attributes, and environmental characteristics. Field assessments include measurements of the response(s) (e.g., presence, abundance, ground cover) of one or more species linked to plots in fragments within a partially forested landscape. The database currently holds 9830 unique species recorded in plots of 58 unique landscapes in six of eight realms: mammals 315, birds 1286, herptiles 460, insects 4521, spiders 204, other arthropods 85, gastropods 70, annelids 8, platyhelminthes 4, Onychophora 2, vascular plants 2112, nonvascular plants and lichens 320, and fungi 449. Three landscapes were sampled as long-term time series (>10 years). Seven hundred and eleven species are found in two or more landscapes. Consolidating the substantial amount of primary data available on biodiversity responses to fragmentation in the context of land-use change and natural disturbances is an essential part of understanding the effects of increasing anthropogenic pressures on land. The consistent format of this database facilitates testing of generalizations concerning biologic responses to fragmentation across diverse systems and taxa. It also allows the re-examination of existing datasets with alternative landscape metrics and robust statistical methods, for example, helping to address pseudo-replication problems. The database can thus help researchers in producing broad syntheses of the effects of land use. The database is dynamic and inclusive, and contributions from individual and large-scale data-collection efforts are welcome.

Assessing the global zoo response to the amphibian crisis through 20‐year trends in captive collections

Global amphibian declines are one of the biggest challenges currently facing the conservation community, and captive breeding is one way to address this crisis. Using information from the International Species Information System zoo network, we examined trends in global zoo amphibian holdings across species, zoo region, and species geographical region of origin from 1994 to 2014. These trends were compared before and after the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment to assess whether any changes occurred and whether zoo amphibian conservation effort had increased. The numbers of globally threatened species (GTS) and their proportional representation in global zoo holdings increased and this rate of increase was significantly greater after 2004. North American, European, and Oceanian GTS were best represented in zoos globally, and proportions of Oceanian GTS held increased the most since 2004. South American and Asian GTS had the lowest proportional representation in zoos. At a regional zoo level, European zoos held the lowest proportions of GTS, and this proportion did not increase after 2004. Since 1994, the number of species held in viable populations has increased, and these species are distributed among more institutions. However, as of 2014, zoos held 6.2% of globally threatened amphibians, a much smaller figure than for other vertebrate groups and one that falls considerably short of the number of species for which ex situ management may be desirable. Although the increased effort zoos have put into amphibian conservation over the past 20 years is encouraging, more focus is needed on ex situ conservation priority species. This includes building expertise and capacity in countries that hold them and tracking existing conservation efforts if the evidence-based approach to amphibian conservation planning at a global level is to be further developed.

Taxonomy-testing and the ‘Goldilocks Hypothesis’: morphometric analysis of species diversity in living and extinct Hispaniolan hutias

Understanding the dynamics of the Late Quaternary Caribbean mammal extinction event is complicated by continuing uncertainty over the taxonomic status of many species. Hispaniola is one of the few Caribbean islands to retain native non-volant mammals; however, there has been little consensus over past or present levels of diversity in Hispaniolan hutias (Capromyidae: Plagiodontinae). Craniodental measurement data from modern hutia specimens, previously classified as both Plagiodontia aedium and P. hylaeum, display morphological differences between Hispaniolas northern and southern palaeo-islands using MANOVA and PCA. Although attempts to amplify mitochondrial DNA from the holotype of P. aedium were unsuccessful, this specimen is morphometrically associated with southern palaeo-island specimens. The mandibular size distribution of recent Plagiodontia specimens is unimodal, but the Late Quaternary mandibular size distribution is multimodal and displays much broader measurement spread, representing multiple extinct species. Finite Mixture Analysis was used to assess the best fit of different taxonomic hypotheses to the fossil mandibular size distribution. All retained FMA models include living hutias and P. spelaeum as distinct taxa; PCA further demonstrates that levels of morphological variation between modern hutia populations are lower than levels between living hutias and P. spelaeum, so that living hutias are interpreted as the single species P. aedium. Taxonomic differentiation for larger-bodied hutias is less well defined, but most retained models show only one larger species, for which the only available name is P. velozi. ‘Plagiodontia’ araeum is morphologically distinct from other species and is reassigned to Hyperplagiodontia. Hispaniolas plagiodontine fauna has lost its largest and smallest representatives; similar trends of body size selectivity in extinction risk are shown more widely across the Caribbean mammal fauna, possibly due to different regional anthropogenic threats (invasive mammals, hunting) affecting small-bodied and large-bodied mammals during the recent past. This apparent pattern of extinction selectivity is named the ‘Goldilocks Hypothesis’.

Dynamics and genetics of a disease driven species decline to near extinction: lessons for conservation

Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity’s targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis.

Impacts of removing badgers on localised counts of hedgehogs.

Experimental evidence of the interactions among mammalian predators that eat or compete with one another is rare, due to the ethical and logistical challenges of managing wild populations in a controlled and replicated way. Here, we report on the opportunistic use of a replicated and controlled culling experiment (the Randomised Badger Culling Trial) to investigate the relationship between two sympatric predators: European badgers Meles meles and western European hedgehogs Erinaceus europaeus. In areas of preferred habitat (amenity grassland), counts of hedgehogs more than doubled over a 5-year period from the start of badger culling (from 0.9 ha−1 pre-cull to 2.4 ha−1 post-cull), whereas hedgehog counts did not change where there was no badger culling (0.3–0.3 hedgehogs ha−1). This trial provides experimental evidence for mesopredator release as an outcome of management of a top predator.

Estimating the population of the Endangered flat-tailed tortoise Pyxis planicauda in the deciduous, dry forest of western Madagascar: a monitoring baseline

The Madagascar flat-tailed tortoise Pyxis planicauda is threatened with extinction through loss of its deciduous, dry forest habitat and illegal collection for the pet trade. Little is known of the population status of this species as no systematic survey across its range has previously been conducted. Surveying P. planicauda is problematic as it has cryptic colouration, is only active during the wet season, and spends periods of time hidden under leaf litter. In this study we designed a line transect survey, which incorporated an approximation of the amount of time tortoises were available for sampling, to produce an unbiased estimate of population size. We estimated density of P. planicauda in the main forest block in central Menabe, which represents the majority of its range, to be 0.40 ha -1 with a total population size of nearly 28,000 individuals (95% confidence interval 16,323-47,669). This estimate is substantially higher than previous predictions of P. planicauda and a survey protocol for monitoring future population trends.

A comparative approach to assess drivers of success in mammalian conservation recovery programs.

The outcomes of species recovery programs have been mixed; high-profile population recoveries contrast with species-level extinctions. Each conservation intervention has its own challenges, but to inform more effective management it is imperative to assess whether correlates of wider recovery program success or failure can be identified. To contribute to evidence-based improvement of future conservation strategies, we conducted a global quantitative analysis of 48 mammalian recovery programs. We reviewed available scientific literature and conducted semistructured interviews with conservation professionals involved in different recovery programs to investigate ecological, management, and political factors associated with population recoveries or declines. Identifying and removing threats was significantly associated with increasing population trend and decreasing conservation dependence, emphasizing that populations are likely to continue to be compromised in the absence of effective threat mitigation and supporting the need for threat monitoring and adaptive management in response to new and potential threats. Lack of habitat and small population size were cited as limiting factors in 56% and 42% of recovery programs, respectively, and both were statistically associated with increased longer term dependence on conservation intervention, demonstrating the importance of increasing population numbers quickly and restoring and protecting habitat. Poor stakeholder coordination and management were also regularly cited by respondents as key weaknesses in recovery programs, indicating the importance of effective leadership and shared goals and management plans. Project outcomes were not influenced by biological or ecological variables such as body mass or habitat, which suggests that these insights into correlates of conservation success and failure are likely to be generalizable across mammals.