Riley M. Duren

Urbanization and the carbon cycle: Current capabilities and research outlook from the natural sciences perspective

This paper explores the urban carbon cycle from the natural sciences perspective, identifying key knowledge gaps and priority areas for future research. The combination of large, concentrated carbon fluxes and rapid change makes cities key elements of the carbon cycle and offers the potential for them to serve as “first responders” for climate action. Estimates of urban-scale carbon fluxes are significantly more uncertain than at larger spatial scales, in part because past studies have mostly avoided local/urban scales where the mix of anthropogenic and natural fluxes is complex and difficult to observationally isolate. To develop effective emission reduction policies, we need to understand emission sources and how they may be changing. Such improved quantification and understanding of underlying processes at the urban scale will not only provide policy-relevant information and improve the understanding of urban dynamics and future scenarios, but will also translate into better global-scale anthropogenic flux estimates, and advance our understanding of carbon cycle and climate feedbacks across multiple scales. Understanding the relationship between urbanization and urban carbon flows requires intellectual integration with research communities beyond the natural sciences. Cities can serve as interdisciplinary process laboratories that are sufficiently constrained in both spatial and governance scale to support truly integrated research by the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. A thoughtfully crafted science research agenda that is grounded in sustained, dense observations relevant to estimating urban carbon fluxes and their controlling processes and is focused on a statistically significant sample of cities will advance our understanding of the carbon cycle.

Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a possible option for offsetting some anthropogenic radiative forcing, with the goal of reducing some of the associated climatic changes. There are clearly significant uncertainties associated with SRM, and even small-scale experiments that might reduce uncertainty would carry some risk. However, there are also natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM, such as volcanic eruptions in the case of stratospheric aerosol injection and ship tracks in the case of marine cloud albedo modification. It is essential to understand what we can learn from these analogs in order to validate models, particularly because of the problematic nature of outdoor experiments. It is also important to understand what we cannot learn, as this might better focus attention on what risks would need to be solely examined by numerical models. Stratospheric conditions following a major volcanic eruption, for example, are not the same as those to be expected from intentional geoengineering, both because of confounding effects of volcanic ash and the differences between continuous and impulsive injection of material into the stratosphere. Nonetheless, better data would help validate models; we thus recommend an appropriate plan be developed to better monitor the next large volcanic eruption. Similarly, more could be learned about cloud albedo modification from careful study not only of ship tracks, but of ship and other aerosol emission sources in cloud regimes beyond the narrow conditions under which ship tracks form; this would benefit from improved satellite observing capabilities.

Climate change: Track urban emissions on a human scale

Cities need to understand and manage their carbon footprint at the level of streets, buildings and communities, urge Kevin Robert Gurney and colleagues.

Field experiments on solar geoengineering: report of a workshop exploring a representative research portfolio

We summarize a portfolio of possible field experiments on solar radiation management (SRM) and related technologies. The portfolio is intended to support analysis of potential field research related to SRM including discussions about the overall merit and risk of such research as well as mechanisms for governing such research and assessments of observational needs. The proposals were generated with contributions from leading researchers at a workshop held in March 2014 at which the proposals were critically reviewed. The proposed research dealt with three major classes of SRM proposals: marine cloud brightening, stratospheric aerosols and cirrus cloud manipulation. The proposals are summarized here along with an analysis exploring variables such as space and time scale, risk and radiative forcing. Possible gaps, biases and cross-cutting considerations are discussed. Finally, suggestions for plausible next steps in the development of a systematic research programme are presented.

A critical knowledge pathway to low‐carbon, sustainable futures: Integrated understanding of urbanization, urban areas, and carbon

Independent lines of research on urbanization, urban areas, and carbon have advanced our understanding of some of the processes through which energy and land uses affect carbon. This synthesis integrates some of these diverse viewpoints as a first step toward a coproduced, integrated framework for understanding urbanization, urban areas, and their relationships to carbon. It suggests the need for approaches that complement and combine the plethora of existing insights into interdisciplinary explorations of how different urbanization processes, and socio-ecological and technological components of urban areas, affect the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions, differentially over time and within and across cities. It also calls for a more holistic approach to examining the carbon implications of urbanization and urban areas, based not only on demographics or income but also on other interconnected features of urban development pathways such as urban form, economic function, economic-growth policies, and other governance arrangements. It points to a wide array of uncertainties around the urbanization processes, their interactions with urban socio-institutional and built environment systems, and how these impact the exchange of carbon flows within and outside urban areas. We must also understand in turn how carbon feedbacks, including carbon impacts and potential impacts of climate change, can affect urbanization processes. Finally, the paper explores options, barriers, and limits to transitioning cities to low-carbon trajectories, and suggests the development of an end-to-end, coproduced and integrated scientific understanding that can more effectively inform the navigation of transitional journeys and the avoidance of obstacles along the way.

StarLight mission: a formation-flying stellar interferometer

The StarLight mission is designed to validate the technologies of formation flying and stellar interferometry in space. The mission consists of two spacecraft in an earth-trailing orbit that formation-fly over relative ranges of 40 to 600m to an accuracy of 10 cm. The relative range and bearing of the spacecraft is sensed by a novel RF sensor, the Autonomous Formation Flyer sensor, which provides 2cm and 1mrad range and bearing knowledge between the spacecraft. The spacecraft each host instrument payloads for a Michelson interferometer that exploit the moving spacecraft to generate variable observing baselines between 30 and 125m. The StarLight preliminary design has shown that a formation-flying interferometer involves significant coupling between the major system elements - spacecraft, formation-flying control, formation-flying sensor, and the interferometer instrument. Mission requirements drive innovative approaches for long-range heterodyne metrology, optical design, glint suppression, formation estimation and control, spacecraft design, and mission operation. Experimental results are described for new technology development areas.

Towards robust global greenhouse gas monitoring

Global monitoring of greenhouse gases and carbon across the coupled earth system would enhance the quality of greenhouse gas emission and removal information available to inventory compilers, auditors, businesses and policy makers. A robust monitoring system would combine direct measurements of the atmosphere, land and oceans, earth system models, inventories and other information to accurately estimate greenhouse gas and carbon stocks and fluxes, towards increasing the overall confidence in reports of mitigation actions and assessments of the ultimate efficacy of those actions. Deploying a monitoring system that offers sustained, accurate, transparent and relevant information represents a challenge and opportunity to a broad community spanning earth science, greenhouse gas accounting and public policy. An introduction to some of the scientific and technical infrastructure issues associated with monitoring systems is offered here to encourage future treatment of these topics by other contributors to this journal.

Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project – Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four “extra-urban” sites including two “marine” sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one “continental” site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one “continental/mid-troposphere” site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ~1 ppm CO2 and ~10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. “Urban” and “suburban” sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ~20 ppm CO2 and ~150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ~15 ppm CO2 and ~80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00–16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine background estimate is ~10 and ~15 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement near downtown LA for CO2 and CH4, respectively. Overall, analytical and background uncertainties are small relative to the local CO2 and CH4 enhancements; however, our results suggest that reducing the uncertainty to less than 5 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement will require detailed assessment of the impact of meteorology on background conditions.

The StarLight formation-flying interferometer system architecture

The StarLight project, formerly known as ST3 and scheduled for a 6 month mission in 2006, will demonstrate the new technologies of spaceborne long-baseline optical interferometry and precision formation flying necessary for the Terrestrial Planet Finder and other future astrophysics missions. A primary goal is to fully characterize the interferometer capabilities by obtaining 100-500 fringe visibility amplitude measurements for stars in the band 600-1000 nm with a variety of stellar visibilities (0.2-1.0), stellar magnitudes (Mv = 2-5), and baselines (B = 30-125 meters). Interferometry on StarLight will be performed both in a 1 meter fixed-baseline combiner-only mode and in a formation-flying mode, in which two spacecraft operate in a novel Parabolic Geometry Interferometer configuration. The Interferometer System will consist of the following subsystems, each of which will have components on both the combiner and collector spacecraft: stellar, metrology, optical bench, electronics, and flight software. This paper provides an overview of the Interferometer System driving requirements, its overall architecture, and subsystems.

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is growing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane emissions. Here we develop a conceptual framework for methane mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban methane emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability quantify this increase. We also lack systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from 4 North American cities to demonstrate that methane emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city, and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitigation approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban methane emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric methane levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives, and should be deployed in cities globally. We suggest that metropolitan-scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.