Robert P. Rechard

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1992 performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1992 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented. The primary performance measure under study is the complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) used in assessing compliance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The analysis considers releases to the accessible environment initiated by exploratory drilling for natural resources and models cuttings removal to the surface due to drilling intrusions, brine and gas flow in the vicinity of the repository and through drilling intrusions away from the repository, radionuclide transport by the flow of brine through intruding boreholes, and brine flow and radionuclide transport in permeable formations overlying the repository (i.e., the Culebra Dolomite). The effects of 49 imprecisely known variables are assessed with techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression analysis. In addition, the effects of several alternative conceptual models for radionuclide transport in the Culebra Dolomite are investigated. Important issues identified in the analysis include (1) the importance of characterizing retardations and solubilities for individual elements, (2) the impact of assumptions involving human activities, including the rate and properties of drilling intrusions, and (3) the need to resolve the question of whether a single-porosity or dual-porosity transport model is appropriate for use in the Culebra Dolomite.

Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: From Regulation to Calculation for 40 CFR 191.13

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant WIPP is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy as a disposal facility for transuranic waste and must comply with several environmental regulations, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys standard for geologic disposal of radioactive waste 40 CFR 191. Procedures used in recent performance assessments for the WIPP to translate regulations into a structure that facilitates quantitative analysis are described. Topics considered include 1 development of a clear conceptual representation for problems that are initially ill-defined, 2 conversion of qualitative guidance into numerical calculations. 3 explicit incorporation of different types of uncertainty i.e., aleatory and epistemic into analysis outcomes, 4 requirements for efficient computation and models at different levels of complexity, 5 use of sensitivity analysis to guide additional data collection and future calculations, 6 requirements for results to be presented and explained to audiences with different interests and levels of sophistication, and 7 ambiguity with respect to final uses of the analysis and its outcomes. The need to address similar concepts and problems arises in many analyses.

Evolution of repository and waste package designs for Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

This paper summarizes the evolution of the engineered barrier design for the proposed Yucca Mountain disposal system. Initially, the underground facility used a fairly standard panel and drift layout excavated mostly by drilling and blasting. By 1993, the layout of the underground facility was changed to accommodate construction by a tunnel boring machine. Placement of the repository in unsaturated zone permitted an extended period without backfilling; placement of the waste package in an open drift permitted use of much larger, and thus hotter packages. Hence in 1994, the underground facility design switched from floor emplacement of waste in small, single walled stainless steel or nickel alloy containers to in-drift emplacement of waste in large, double-walled containers. By 2000, the outer layer was a high nickel alloy for corrosion resistance and the inner layer was stainless steel for structural strength. Use of large packages facilitated receipt and disposal of high volumes of spent nuclear fuel. In addition, in-drift package placement saved excavation costs. Options considered for in-drift emplacement included different heat loads and use of backfill. To avoid dripping on the package during the thermal period and the possibility of localized corrosion, titanium drip shields were added for the disposal drifts by 2000. In addition, a handling canister, sealed at the reactor to eliminate further handling of bare fuel assemblies, was evaluated and eventually adopted in 2006. Finally, staged development of the underground layout was adopted to more readily adjust to changes in waste forms and Congressional funding.

Waste degradation and mobilization in performance assessments for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

This paper summarizes modeling of waste degradation and mobilization in performance assessments (PAs) conducted between 1984 and 2008 to evaluate feasibility, viability, and assess compliance of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada. As understanding of the Yucca Mountain disposal system increased, the waste degradation module, or succinctly called the source-term, evolved from initial assumptions in 1984 to results based on process modeling in 2008. In early PAs, waste degradation had significant influence on calculated behavior but as the robustness of the waste container was increased and modeling of the container degradation improved, waste degradation had much less influence in later PAs. The variation of dissolved concentrations of radionuclides progressed from simple probability distributions in early PAs to functions dependent upon water chemistry in later PAs. Also, transport modeling of radionuclides in the waste, container, and invert were added in 1995; and, colloid-facilitated transport of radionuclides was added in 1998.

Site characterization of the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

Abstract This paper summarizes the investigations conducted to characterize the geologic barrier of the Yucca Mountain disposal system. Site characterization progressed through (1) non-intrusive evaluation and borehole completions to determine stratigraphy for site identification; (2) exploration from the surface through well testing to evaluate the repository feasibility; (3) underground exploration to study coupled processes to evaluate repository suitability; and (4) reporting of experimental conclusions to support the repository compliance phase. Some of the scientific and technical challenges encountered included the evolution from a small preconstruction characterization program with much knowledge to be acquired during construction of the repository to a large characterization program with knowledge acquired prior to submission of the license application for construction authorization in June 2008 (i.e., the evolution from a preconstruction characterization program costing

Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

Abstract A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10 3 ). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described.

Programmer`s manual for CAMCON: Compliance Assessment Methodology CONtroller

CAMCON, the Compliance Assessment Methodology CONtroller, is an analysis system that assists in assessing the compliance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) with applicable long-term regulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency, including Subpart B of the Environmental Standards for the Management and Disposal of spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes, 40 CFR 191 and 40CFR268.6, which is the portion of the Land Disposal Restrictions implementing the Resource, Conservative, and Recovery Act of 1976, as amended that states the conditions for disposal of hazardous chemical wastes. This manual provides an architectural overview of the CAMCON system. Furthermore this manual presents guidelines and presents suggestions for programmers developing the many different types of software necessary to investigate various events and physical processes of the WIPP. These guidelines include user interface requirements, minimum quality assurance requirements, coding style suggestions, and the use of numerous software libraries developed specifically for or adapted for the CAMCON system.

Insight from Public Surveys Related to Siting of Nuclear Waste Facilities: An Overview of Findings from a 2015 Nationwide Survey of US Residents

The results described in this report are an analysis of nationwide surveys, administered between 2006 and 2015, which measure preferences of US residents concerning the environment and energy sources. The Energy & Environment (EE) survey series is conducted annually by the Center for Energy, Security & Society (CES&S), a joint research collaboration of the University of Oklahoma and Sandia National Laboratories. The annual EE survey series is designed to track evolving public views on nuclear materials management in the US. The 2015 wave of the Energy and Environment survey (EE15) was implemented using a web-based questionnaire, and was completed by 2,021 respondents using an Internet sample that matches the characteristics of the adult US population as estimated in the US Census. A special focus of the EE15 survey is how survey respondents understand and evaluate “consent” in the context of the storage and transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). This report presents an overview of key results from analyses of questions related to consent-based siting and other elements of the nuclear energy fuel cycle.

End of FY10 Report - Used Fuel Disposition Technical Bases and Lessons Learned Legal and Regulatory Framework for High-Level Waste Disposition in the United States

This report examines the current policy, legal, and regulatory framework pertaining to used nuclear fuel and high level waste management in the United States. The goal is to identify potential changes that if made could add flexibility and possibly improve the chances of successfully implementing technical aspects of a nuclear waste policy. Experience suggests that the regulatory framework should be established prior to initiating future repository development. Concerning specifics of the regulatory framework, reasonable expectation as the standard of proof was successfully implemented and could be retained in the future; yet, the current classification system for radioactive waste, including hazardous constituents, warrants reexamination. Whether or not consideration of multiple sites are considered simultaneously in the future, inclusion of mechanisms such as deliberate use of performance assessment to manage site characterization would be wise. Because of experience gained here and abroad, diversity of geologic media is not particularly necessary as a criterion in site selection guidelines for multiple sites. Stepwise development of the repository program that includes flexibility also warrants serious consideration. Furthermore, integration of the waste management system from storage, transportation, and disposition, should be examined and would be facilitated by integration of the legal and regulatory framework. Finally, in order to enhance acceptability of future repository development, the national policy should be cognizant of those policy and technical attributes that enhance initial acceptance, and those policy and technical attributes that maintain and broaden credibility.