Robin Hickman

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: urban land transport.

We used Comparative Risk Assessment methods to estimate the health effects of alternative urban land transport scenarios for two settings-London, UK, and Delhi, India. For each setting, we compared a business-as-usual 2030 projection (without policies for reduction of greenhouse gases) with alternative scenarios-lower-carbon-emission motor vehicles, increased active travel, and a combination of the two. We developed separate models that linked transport scenarios with physical activity, air pollution, and risk of road traffic injury. In both cities, we noted that reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through an increase in active travel and less use of motor vehicles had larger health benefits per million population (7332 disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] in London, and 12 516 in Delhi in 1 year) than from the increased use of lower-emission motor vehicles (160 DALYs in London, and 1696 in Delhi). However, combination of active travel and lower-emission motor vehicles would give the largest benefits (7439 DALYs in London, 12 995 in Delhi), notably from a reduction in the number of years of life lost from ischaemic heart disease (10-19% in London, 11-25% in Delhi). Although uncertainties remain, climate change mitigation in transport should benefit public health substantially. Policies to increase the acceptability, appeal, and safety of active urban travel, and discourage travel in private motor vehicles would provide larger health benefits than would policies that focus solely on lower-emission motor vehicles.

Looking over the horizon - visioning and backcasting

This book argues that the issues surrounding sustainable transport constitute a new - post-modern - phase in transport policy and management.

Achieving carbon-efficient transportation: Backcasting from London

Transportation is a major user of carbon-based fuels and is increasingly being highlighted as the sector that contributes the least to carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the current Visioning and Backcasting for Transport in London study, which considers the role of the transportation sector in reducing CO2 emissions in London. A backcasting study approach was used, and the likely impacts of alternative images of 2025 were tested. A transportation and carbon simulation game was also developed for London. Within this game, users are able to consider a series of potential policy packages, such as low-emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimens, public transportation, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long-distance travel substitution, freight transportation, and international air, and select various levels of application to help achieve headline CO2 emissions reduction targets. The roles of two external enabling measures, carbon rationing and oil pricing, were also considered. The paper considers an optimized policy package for 2025. A deep reduction in CO2 emissions from the transportation sector is theoretically possible, yet difficult to achieve. The main perceived problem is in engendering an interest in the public to change consumer purchases and behaviors. The huge challenge now is to map out and discuss a variety of policy pathways to carbon efficiency in the transportation sector and then to enable and achieve a level of consumer and behavioral change consistent with strategic aspiration.

Chapter 13 Thinking Strategically: Pathways Towards Low-Carbon Transport

Purpose – To consider the potential for transport CO2 reductions in Oxfordshire. It examines the CO2 baseline within the county and elsewhere in the United Kingdom, assessing the high and low emitters in terms of relative transport CO2 emissions. A target for the county is developed at 1.2 tCO2 per capita by 2030, and ultimately 0.5 tCO2 per capita by 2050, and scenario analysis is used to assess the potential interventions, policy packages and different pathways available for CO2 emission reduction. n nMethodology/approach – The central Oxfordshire transport model (COTOM) is used to quantify the likely impacts of different policy areas over the long term to 2030. It is illustrated how the strategic policy direction can be set within transport, and attempts are made to quantify the scale of likely impacts from the options available. n nFindings – Current interventions and levels of funding for sustainable transport are not strong enough to significantly reduce transport CO2 emissions in line with the national UK targets and there is a significant underestimation of the scales of change required. There is a major discontinuity between the ‘greenwash’ of the conjecture at the national governmental level and the level of funding necessary to actually implement effective actions at the local level. n nOriginality/value – The chapter is original in illustrating how the strategic policy direction can be set within transport at the regional level and also in attempting to quantify the scale of likely impacts.