Sean D. Birkel

Younger Dryas deglaciation of Scotland driven by warming summers

Significance Resolving the full manifestation of past abrupt climate change is key to understanding the processes driving and propagating these events. As a principal component of global heat transport, the North Atlantic Ocean also is susceptible to rapid disruptions of meridional overturning circulation and thus widely invoked as a cause of abrupt climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. We assess the impact of one such North Atlantic cold event—the Younger Dryas Stadial—on an adjacent ice mass and show that, rather than instigating a return to glacial conditions, this abrupt climate event was characterized by deglaciation. We suggest this pattern indicates summertime warming during the Younger Dryas, potentially as a function of enhanced seasonality in the North Atlantic. The Younger Dryas Stadial (YDS; ∼12,900–11,600 y ago) in the Northern Hemisphere is classically defined by abrupt cooling and renewed glaciation during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Although this event involved a global reorganization of atmospheric and oceanic circulation [Denton GH, Alley RB, Comer GC, Broecker WS (2005) Quat Sci Rev 24:1159–1182], the magnitude, seasonality, and geographical footprint of YDS cooling remain unresolved and pose a challenge to our understanding of abrupt climate change. Here, we present a deglacial chronology from Scotland, immediately downwind of the North Atlantic Ocean, indicating that the Scottish ice cap disintegrated during the first half of the YDS. We suggest that stratification of the North Atlantic Ocean resulted in amplified seasonality that, paradoxically, stimulated a severe wintertime climate while promoting warming summers through solar heating of the mixed layer. This latter process drove deglaciation of downwind landmasses to completion well before the end of the YDS.

Twentieth century dust lows and the weakening of the westerly winds over the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding past atmospheric dust variability is necessary to put modern atmospheric dust into historical context and assess the impacts of dust on the climate. In Asia, meteorological data of atmospheric dust is temporally limited, beginning only in the 1950s. High-resolution ice cores provide the ideal archive for reconstructing preinstrumental atmospheric dust concentrations. Using a ~500 year (1477–1982 A.D.) annually resolved calcium (Ca) dust proxy from a Tibetan Plateau (TP) ice core, we demonstrate the lowest atmospheric dust concentrations in the past ~500 years during the latter twentieth century. Declines in late nineteenth to twentieth century Ca concentrations significantly correspond with regional zonal wind trends from two reanalysis models, suggesting that the Ca record provides a proxy for the westerlies. Twentieth century warming and attendant atmospheric pressure reductions over northern Asia have potentially reduced temperature/pressure gradients resulting in lower zonal wind velocities and associated dust entrainment/transport in the past ~500 years over the TP.

Extreme weather years drive episodic changes in lake chemistry: implications for recovery from sulfate deposition and long-term trends in dissolved organic carbon

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate (SO42−) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during an extreme wet year and an extreme dry year across the region. Redundancy analysis was used to model lake chemical response to extreme weather as a function of watershed features. A response was observed in DOC and SO42− concentration in response to extreme wet and dry years in lakes across the northeastern U.S. Acidification was observed during drought and brownification was observed during wet years. Lake chemical response was related to landscape characteristics in different ways depending on the type of extreme year. A linear relationship between wetland coverage and DOC and SO42− deviations was observed during extreme wet years. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Understanding the chemical response to weather variability is becoming increasingly important as temporal variation in precipitation is likely to intensify with continued atmospheric warming.

Recent decrease in DOC concentrations in Arctic lakes of southwest Greenland

A key indicator of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle is shifting dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters. Arctic permafrost holds twice as much C as the atmosphere, thus recent warming and changes in atmospheric deposition to the region raise the need for a better understanding of how DOC is changing in arctic surface waters. In Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, lakewater DOC concentrations declined by 14 to 55% (absolute changes of 1 to 24 mg L-1) between 2003 and 2013, without significant changes in quality. Lakewater sulfate concentrations, but not chloride or conductivity, increased. These results suggest that, similar to processes that have occurred at northern mid-latitudes, increases in soil ionic strength as a result of sulfate enrichment may be linked to declining surface water DOC concentrations. Such enrichment may be occurring with enhanced non-sea-salt sulfate deposition. Our results reveal that rapid changes are occurring in the carbon cycle of this region of southwest Greenland.

Climate Inferences from a Glaciological Reconstruction of the Late Pleistocene Wind River Ice Cap, Wind River Range, Wyoming

Abstract We reconstructed the former ice cap of the Wind River Range, Wyoming, using a glaciological model with scaled modern temperature and precipitation inputs to examine probable climate during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (or Pinedale glaciation). A key result is that temperature anomalies of - 10 °C, -8.5 °C, -6.5 °C, and -5 °C must compensate respective precipitation values of 50%, 100%, 200%, and 300% that of modern in order for the maximum glacier system to attain equilibrium. In further sensitivity tests, we find that ice-cap area and volume shrink by 75% under a climate forcing 50% modern and 50% LGM. The glacier system disappears altogether in ∼100 years when subjected to sustained modern conditions. Our results are consistent with other interpretations of western U.S. LGM climate, and demonstrate that the Wind River Ice Cap could have disintegrated rapidly during the first phase of the termination. In future work we will simulate glacier-climate evolution as constrained by emerging 10Be moraine chronologies.

Younger Dryas Paleoenvironments and Ice Dynamics in Northern Maine: A Multi-Proxy, Case History

Abstract Geological evidence for modeled Younger Dryas ice expansion in northern Maine is assessed in conjunction with temperature and precipitation estimates from chironomids and pollen, and plant macrofossil and lake-level analyses from lake sediment. Pollen and chironomid temperature and precipitation transfer-function estimates for the Allerød warming period indicate colder winters, precipitation levels half that of modern times, and summer temperatures near modern levels. The combination of cold winters and low precipitation prevented forest establishment in northern Maine along the Maine/New Brunswick border. While winter temperatures and precipitation remained stable, summer temperatures decreased as much as 7.5 °C during the Younger Dryas stadial, forcing a shift from shrub-dominated to sedge-dominated tundra. Summer and winter temperatures, as well as annual precipitation, increased rapidly at the Holocene onset.

Industrial-age doubling of snow accumulation in the Alaska Range linked to tropical ocean warming

Future precipitation changes in a warming climate depend regionally upon the response of natural climate modes to anthropogenic forcing. North Pacific hydroclimate is dominated by the Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent wintertime feature characterized by frequent low-pressure conditions that is influenced by tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures through the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Instrumental records show a recent increase in coastal Alaskan precipitation and Aleutian Low intensification, but are of insufficient length to accurately assess low frequency trends and forcing mechanisms. Here we present a 1200-year seasonally- to annually-resolved ice core record of snow accumulation from Mt. Hunter in the Alaska Range developed using annual layer counting and four ice-flow thinning models. Under a wide range of glacier flow conditions and layer counting uncertainty, our record shows a doubling of precipitation since ~1840 CE, with recent values exceeding the variability observed over the past millennium. The precipitation increase is nearly synchronous with the warming of western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. While regional 20th Century warming may account for a portion of the observed precipitation increase on Mt. Hunter, the magnitude and seasonality of the precipitation change indicate a long-term strengthening of the Aleutian Low.

Examination of Precipitation Variability in Southern Greenland

The surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet has decreased in recent decades with important implications for global sea-level rise. Here, a climate reanalysis model is used to examine observed circulation variability and changes in precipitation across southern Greenland to gain insight into the future climate in the region. The influence on precipitation from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Icelandic Low, Azores High, regional blocking patterns, as well as near-surface temperature and winds are explored. Statistically significant correlations are higher between precipitation and the Icelandic Low and near-surface winds (0.5–0.7; p < 0.05) than correlations between precipitation and either the NAO or AMO climate indices (southwest Greenland: r = 0.12 and 0.28, respectively; and southeast Greenland: r = 0.25 and -0.07, respectively). Moreover, the recent enhanced warming in the Arctic (Arctic amplification) and the increase in the Greenland Blocking Index coincide with increased mean annual precipitation and interannual variability in southwest Greenland.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of ~1.2°C since 1870–1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels. Plain Language Summary Computer models and satellites show that the amount of snow melting each summer on Greenland has increased since the 1990s, but it is difficult to confirm this directly on the ice sheet. When surface snow melts, the water spreads into deeper layers of snow and refreezes as an ice layer. As fresh snow buries each summer’s ice layers, the history of snowmelt is preserved in the ice sheet. We describe seven ice cores collected from western Greenland that contain the history of ice layers back to 1966. We find more ice layers, caused by more summer melting, since the 1990s. By comparing our ice cores to a longer ice core from the same area, we show that today’s melt rates are the highest in this region since at least 1550 CE. Year-to-year changes in the amount of melting are mostly caused by changes in the number of summer high-pressure systems and fluctuating ocean temperatures near Greenland. Although both of these processes have contributed to recent high melt rates, Greenland is 1.2°C warmer today than during similar conditions in the 1890s. This “extra” warming is most likely caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, leading to the unusual melt rates of recent years.

Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a 60–70 year pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic commonly ascribed to internal ocean dynamics and changes in northward heat transport. Recent modeling studies, however, suggest that SSTs fluctuate primarily in response to major volcanic eruptions and changes in atmospheric circulation. Here, we utilize historical SST, atmospheric reanalysis, and stratospheric aerosol optical depth data to examine the basic evidence supporting a volcanic link. We find that cool intervals across the North Atlantic coincide with two distinct episodes of explosive volcanic activity (1880s–1920s and 1960s–1990s), where key eruptions include 1883 Krakatau, 1902 Santa María, 1912 Novarupta, 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo. Cool SST patterns develop in association with an increased prevalence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)+ atmospheric patterns caused by stratospheric aerosol loading and a steepened poleward temperature gradient. NAO+ patterns promote wind-driven advection, evaporative cooling, and increased albedo from enhanced Saharan dust transport and anthropogenic aerosols. SSTs across the subpolar gyre are regulated by strength of low pressure near Iceland and the associated wind-driven advection of cold surface water from the Labrador Sea. This is contrary to an interpretation that subpolar SSTs are driven by changes in ocean overturning circulation. We also find that North Pacific and global mean SST declines can be readily associated with the same volcanic triggers that affect the North Atlantic. Thus, external forcing from volcanic aerosols appears to underpin multi-decade SST variability observed in the historical record.Atmosphere-ocean interactions: volcanically-driven atlantic ocean variabilityPast multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic is influenced by volcanic activity. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—a 60–70 year cycle between warm and cool SST—has been linked to internal ocean dynamics, but climate models suggest volcanic eruptions may play a role. Sean Birkel and colleagues from the University of Maine provide an observational perspective on such connections. Episodes of explosive volcanism coincide with cooler intervals in the North Atlantic, driven by volcanically-forced shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In the 1880s–1920s, for example, the Krakatau, Santa María and Novarupta eruptions forced cooler SST, whereas a period of relatively quiescent volcanism enabled warmer SST in the 1930s-1950s. Observational evidence therefore suggests volcanic activity may more strongly influence North Atlantic—and thus global—climate variability than previously thought.