Thomas Carothers

THE END OF THE TRANSITION PARADIGM

In the last quarter of the twentieth century, trends in seven different regions converged to change the political landscape of the world: 1) the fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes in Southern Europe in the mid1970s; 2) the replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments across Latin America from the late 1970s through the late 1980s; 3) the decline of authoritarian rule in parts of East and South Asia starting in the mid-1980s; 4) the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe at the end of the 1980s; 5) the breakup of the Soviet Union and the establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics in 1991; 6) the decline of one-party regimes in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa in the first half of the 1990s; and 7) a weak but recognizable liberalizing trend in some Middle Eastern countries in the 1990s. The causes, shape, and pace of these different trends varied considerably. But they shared a dominant characteristic—simultaneous movement in at least several countries in each region away from dictatorial rule toward more liberal and often more democratic governance. And though differing in many ways, these trends influenced and to some extent built on one another. As a result, they were considered by many observers, especially in the West, as component parts of a larger whole, a global democratic trend that thanks to Samuel Huntington has widely come to be known as the “third wave” of democracy. This striking tide of political change was seized upon with enthusiasm by the U.S. government and the broader U.S. foreign policy community. As early as the mid-1980s, President Ronald Reagan, Secretary of State Thomas Carothers is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. He is the author of many works on democracy promotion, including Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (1999), and is the coeditor with Marina Ottaway of Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion (2000).

The "Sequencing" Fallacy

Abstract:Concerned by illiberalism and conflict in new democracies, some analysts advocate democratic sequencing—putting off democracy until the rule of law and a well-functioning state are in place. Such a view overestimates the willingness and capability of autocrats to build a strong foundation for democracy and the ability of the United States to influence decisions by other societies about how to proceed with political change. Gradually introducing key components of political competition is a better alternative than putting off democracy altogether in countries where the underlying structural factors point to a difficult democratic path.

Promoting the Rule of Law Abroad: In Search of Knowledge

Promoting the rule of law has become a major part of Western efforts to spread democracy and market economics around the world. Leading practitioners and policy-oriented scholars draw on years of experience - in Russia, China, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa - to critically assess the rationale, methods, and goals of rule-of-law policies.

Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?

Two distinct approaches to international democracy assistance have emerged in recent years: the political approach and the developmental approach. They vary with respect to their underlying conceptions of democracy and democratization and their methods and areas of focus. U.S. democracy promotion makes use of both approaches; European democracy support efforts largely favor the developmental approach. Neither approach is necessarily preferable overall; both have multiple strengths and weaknesses. The existence of two core approaches is evidence that democracy aid is diversifying to adapt to a more challenging international political landscape. Democracy-aid providers are moving away from one-size-fits-all strategies and are adapting their programs to diverse political contexts. Two distinct overall approaches to assisting democracy have emerged in response.

Promoting Democracy and Fighting Terror

When George W. Bush took office two years ago, few observers expected that promoting democracy around the world would become a major issue in his presidency. During the 2000 presidential campaign Bush and his advisers had made it clear that they favored great-power realism over idealistic notions such as nation building or democracy promotion. And as expected, the incoming Bush team quickly busied itself with casting aside many policies closely associated with President Bill Clinton. Some analysts feared democracy promotion would also get the ax. But September 11 fundamentally altered this picture. Whether, where, and how the United States should promote democracy around the world have become central questions in U.S. policy debates with regard to a host of countries including Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and many others.

Democracy assistance: The question of strategy

The current expansion of efforts by most western donors to use assistance to promote democracy in other countries raises many questions about the forms and functions of such aid. This article addresses the question of strategy: what approach to democracy and democratization does such assistance embody? The analysis concentrates on US aid although the argument is advanced that the democracy‐related aid of other donors does not differ substantially in terms of basic approach. The article finds that although US democracy assistance rests on a conventional model of western liberal democracy, it also rests on a less clearly‐established model of democratization that can best be characterized as one of institutional modeling. The sources of this model of democratization as well as its practical strengths and weaknesses are examined. The article concludes with an assessment of the ways in which aid practitioners are attempting to move beyond the existing approach to more innovative, effective strategies of democr...

Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve@@@Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion

In recent years the United States and many other international donors have embraced civil society aid as a key tool of democracy promotion. They support thousands of NGOs around the world in the name of civil society development, investing in these organizations high hopes for fostering democratic participation and values. Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion critically examines this burgeoning field. A diverse, distinguished collection of democracy experts and civil society practitioners from both donor and recipient countries analyze civil society aid in five regions, including country case studies of South Africa, the Philippines, Peru, Egypt, and Romania. The authors focus on crucial issues and dilemmas, such as the relationship between donor conceptions of civil society and local realities, the effects of civil society programs, and how aid can be improved. The books broad geographic reach, practical focus, and analytic rigor make it an invaluable guide to this vital new area of international affairs.