Thomas L. Mote

Patterns and Causes of Atlanta's Urban Heat Island–Initiated Precipitation

Abstract Because of rapid growth and urbanization of Atlanta, Georgia, over the past few decades, the city has developed a pronounced urban heat island (UHI) that has been shown to enhance and possibly to initiate thunderstorms. This study attempts to find patterns and causes of Atlantas induced precipitation that might not have been initiated otherwise. Land use maps, radar reflectivity, surface meteorological data, upper-air soundings, and airmass classification (spatial synoptic classification) types are all used to determine when, where, and why precipitation is initiated by Atlanta. Findings illustrate significant spatial and temporal patterns based on a 5-yr climatological description of events. July had the most events, with a diurnal peak just after local midnight. Low-level moisture, rather than UHI intensity, appears to be the most important factor for UHI-induced precipitation. However, UHI intensity also plays an important role. Events tended to occur under atmospheric conditions that were mo...

Variations in snowpack melt on the Greenland ice sheet based on passive-microwave measurements

A simple microwave-emission model is used to simulate 37 GHz brightness temperatures associated with snowpack-melt conditions for locations across the Greenland ice sheet. The simulated values are utilized as threshold values and compared to daily, gridded SMMR and SSM/I passive-microwave data, in order to reveal regions experiencing melt. The spatial extent of the area classified as melting is examined on a daily, monthly and seasonal (May-August) basis for 1979-91. The typical seasonal cycle of melt coverage shows melt beginning in late April, a rapid increase in the melting area from mid-May to mid-July, a rapid decrease in melt extent from late July through mid-August, and cessation of melt in late September. Seasonal averages of the daily melt extents demonstrate an apparent increase in melt coverage over the 13 year period of approximately 3.8% annually (significant at the 95% confidence interval). This increase is dominated by statistically significant positive trends in melt coverage during July and August in the west and southwest of the ice sheet. We find that a linear correlation between microwave-derived melt extent and a surface measure of ablation rate is significant in June and July but not August, so caution must be exercised in using the microwave-derived melt extents in August. Nevertheless, knowledge of the variability of snowpack melt on the Greenland ice sheet as derived from microwave data should prove useful in detecting climate change in the Arctic and examining the impact of climate change on the ice sheet

Distribution of Mesoscale Convective Complex Rainfall in the United States

Several annual mesoscale convective complex (MCC) summaries have been compiled since Maddox strictly defined their criteria in 1980. These previous studies have largely been independent of each other and therefore have not established the extended spatial and temporal patterns associated with these large, quasi-circular, and, typically, severe convective systems. This deficiency is primarily due to the difficulty of archiving enough satellite imagery to accurately record each MCC based on Maddox’s criteria. Consequently, this study utilizes results from each of the MCC summaries compiled between 1978 and 1999 for the United States in order to develop a more complete climatology, or description of long-term means and interannual variation, of these storms. Within the 22-yr period, MCC summaries were compiled for a total of 15 yr. These 15 yr of MCC data are employed to establish estimated tracks for all MCCs documented and, thereafter, are utilized to determine MCC populations on a monthly, seasonal, annual, and multiyear basis. Subsequent to developing an extended climatology of MCCs, the study ascertains the spatial and temporal patterns of MCC rainfall and determines the precipitation contributions made by MCCs over the central and eastern United States. Results indicate that during the warm season, significant portions of the Great Plains receive, on average, between 8% and 18% of their total precipitation from MCC rainfall. However, there is large yearly and even monthly variability in the location and frequency of MCC events that leads to highly variable precipitation contributions.

A Climatology of Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Central and Eastern United States, 1986–95. Part I: Temporal and Spatial Distribution

Abstract In 1888, Iowa weather researcher Gustavus Hinrichs gave widespread convectively induced windstorms the name “derecho”. Refinements to this definition have evolved after numerous investigations of these systems; however, to date, a derecho climatology has not been conducted. This investigation examines spatial and temporal aspects of derechos and their associated mesoscale convective systems that occurred from 1986 to 1995. The spatial distribution of derechos revealed four activity corridors during the summer, five during the spring, and two during the cool season. Evidence suggests that the primary warm season derecho corridor is located in the southern Great Plains. During the cool season, derecho activity was found to occur in the southeast states and along the Atlantic seaboard. Temporally, derechos are primarily late evening or overnight events during the warm season and are more evenly distributed throughout the day during the cool season.

DERECHO HAZARDS IN THE UNITED STATES

Abstract Convectively generated wind-storms occur over broad temporal and spatial scales; however, the more widespread and longer lived of these windstorms have been given the name “derecho.” Utilizing an integrated derecho database, including 377 events from 1986 to 2003, this investigation reveals the amount of insured property losses, fatalities, and injuries associated with these windstorms in the United States. Individual derechos have been responsible for up to 8 fatalities, 204 injuries, forest blow-downs affecting over 3,000 km2 of timber, and estimated insured losses of nearly a

Greenland ice sheet surface melt extent and trends: 1960–2010

500 million. Findings illustrate that derecho fatalities occur more frequently in vehicles or while boating, while injuries are more likely to happen in vehicles or mobile homes. Both fatalities and injuries are most common outside the region with the highest derecho frequency. An underlying synthesis of both physical and social vulnerabilities is suggested as the cause of the unexpected casualty distribution. In additio...

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Complexes to Rainfall across Subtropical South America

Observed meteorological data and a high-resolution (5 km) model were used to simulate Greenland ice sheet surface melt extent and trends before the satellite era (1960–79) and during the satellite era through 2010°. The model output was compared with passive microwave satellite observations of melt extent. For 1960–2010 the average simulated melt extent was 15 ± 5%. For the period 1960–72, simulated melt extent decreased by an average of 6%, whereas 1973–2010 had an average increase of 13%, with record melt extent in 2010. The trend in simulated melt extent since 1972 indicated that the melt extent in 2010 averaged twice that in the early 1970s. The maximum and mean melt extents for 2010 were 52% (∼9.5 × 10 5 km 2 ) and 28% (∼5.2 × 10 5 km 2 ), respectively, due to higher-than-average winter and summer temperatures and lower-than-average winter precipitation. For 2010, the southwest Greenland melt duration was 41–60 days longer than the 1960–2010 average, while the northeast Greenland melt duration was up to 20 days shorter. From 1960 to 1972 the melting period (with a >10% melt extent) decreased by an average of 3 days a− 1 . After 1972, the period increased by an average of 2 days a− 1 , indicating an extended melting period for the ice sheet of about 70 days: 40 and 30 days in spring and autumn, respectively.

Interepochal Changes in Summer Precipitation in the Southeastern United States: Evidence of Possible Urban Effects near Atlanta, Georgia

This study uses a database consisting of 330 austral warm-season (October‐May) mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) during 1998‐2007 to determine the contribution of MCCs to rainfall across subtropical South America (SSA). A unique precipitation analysis is conducted using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 version 6 data. The average MCC produces 15.7 mm of rainfall across 381 000 km 2 , withavolumeof7.0km 3 . MCCsin SSAhavethelargestprecipitation areascomparedtoNorthAmericanand African systems. MCCs accounted for 15%‐21% of the total rainfall across portions of northern Argentina and Paraguay during 1998‐2007. However, MCCs account for larger fractions of the total precipitation when analyzed on monthly and warm-season time scales. Widespread MCC rainfall contributions of 11%‐20% were observed in all months. MCCs accounted for 20%‐30% of the total rainfall between November and February, and 30%‐50% in December, primarily across northern Argentina and Paraguay. MCCs also produced 25%‐66% of the total rainfall across portions of west-central Argentina. Similar MCC rainfall contributionswereobservedduringwarmseasons.AnMCCimpactfactor(MIF)wasdevelopedtodetermine the overall impact of MCC rainfall on warm-season precipitation anomalies. Results show that the greatest impactson precipitation anomaliesfromMCCrainfallwerelocatednearthecenteroftheLa Platabasin.This study demonstrates that MCCs in SSA produce widespread precipitation that contributes substantially to the total rainfall across the region.

Understanding Greenland ice sheet hydrology using an integrated multi-scale approach

Through modification of the planetary boundary layer, urbanization has the potential to have a significant impact on precipitation totals locally. Using daily summer-season precipitation data at 30 stations from 1953 to 2002, this study explores the possibility of urban effects as causes of spatial anomalies in precipitation in a zone within 180 km of Atlanta, Georgia. The time period is divided into consecutive epochs (e.g., 1953–77 and 1978–2002), and interepochal differences in precipitation totals, heavy-precipitation days, cumulative heavy precipitation, and atmospheric conditions are explored. The southern stations experienced significant decreases in precipitation, whereas significant precipitation increases occurred at central/west-central stations. The most striking increases occurred at Norcross, Georgia, which is 30 km northeast of downtown Atlanta; Norcross had the third smallest number of heavy-precipitation days during 1953–77, but, during 1978–2002, it had the most heavy-precipitation days. Not only did the amount of urban land cover upwind of Norcross increase substantially from the earlier to the later epochs, but regionwide dewpoint temperatures also increased significantly. Therefore, it is suspected that the increased precipitation at Norcross was caused by urban effects, and these effects may have been enhanced by increased atmospheric humidity.

On the Role of Snow Cover in Depressing Air Temperature

Improved understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology is critically important for assessing its impact on current and future ice sheet dynamics and global sea level rise. This has motivated the collection and integration of in situ observations, model development, and remote sensing efforts to quantify meltwater production, as well as its phase changes, transport, and export. Particularly urgent is a better understanding of albedo feedbacks leading to enhanced surface melt, potential positive feedbacks between ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, and meltwater retention in firn. These processes are not isolated, but must be understood as part of a continuum of processes within an integrated system. This letter describes a systems approach to the study of Greenland ice sheet hydrology, emphasizing component interconnections and feedbacks, and highlighting research and observational needs.