Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu

Toward self-describing and workflow integrated Earth system models: A coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system application

The complexity of Earth system models and their applications is increasing as a consequence of scientific advances, user demand, and the ongoing development of computing platforms, storage systems and distributed high-resolution observation networks. Multi-component Earth system models need to be redesigned to make interactions among model components and other applications external to the modeling system easier. To that end, the common component interfaces of Earth system models can be redesigned to increase interoperability between models and other applications such as various web services, data portals and science gateways. The models can be made self-describing so that the many configuration, build options and inputs of a simulation can be recorded. In this paper, we present a coupled modeling system that includes the proposed methodology to create self-describing models with common model component interfaces. The designed coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system is also integrated into a scientific workflow system to simplify routine modeling tasks and relationships between these tasks and to demonstrate the enhanced interoperability between different technologies and components. Later on, the work environment is tested using a realistic Earth system modeling application. As can be seen through this example, a layered design for collecting provenance and metadata has the added benefit of documenting a run in far greater detail than before. In this way, it facilitates exploration and understanding of simulations and leads to possible reproducibility. In addition to designing self-describing Earth system models, the regular modeling tasks are also simplified and automated by using a scientific workflow which provides meaningful abstractions for the model, computing environment and provenance/metadata collection mechanisms. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex model integration problem by using a framework and scientific workflow approach together. The reader may also note that the methods presented in this paper might be also generalized to other types of Earth system models, leading to improved ease of use and flexibility. The initial results also show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which is controlled by the designed workflow environment, is able to reproduce the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature when it is compared with the used CCSM3 initial and boundary conditions.

A scientific workflow environment for Earth system related studies

Many separate tasks must be performed to configure, run, and analyze Earth system modeling applications. This work is motivated by the complexities of running a large modeling system on a high performance network and the need to reduce those complexities, particularly for the average user. Scientific workflow systems can be used to simplify these task and their relationships, although how to implement such systems is still an open research area. In this paper, we present a methodology to combine a scientific workflow and modeling framework approach to create a standardized work environment and provide a first example of a self-describing Earth system model. We then show the results of an example workflow that is based on the proposed methodology. The example workflow allows running and analyzing a global circulation model on both a grid computing environment and a cluster system, with meaningful abstractions for the model and computing environment. As can be seen through this example, a layered approach to collecting provenance and metadata information has the added benefit of documenting a run in far greater detail than before. This approach facilitates exploration of runs and leads to possible reproducibility.

Quantification of the Urban Heat Island Under a Changing Climate over Anatolian Peninsula

The Anatolian Peninsula is located at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa and houses 81 cities of which 79 of them have population over 100,000. We employed some criteria to select the cities from the 81 cities. After accomplishing all the criteria, eight cities were remaining for the study. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test procedure was employed for the urban and rural stations of these cities to detect the long-term change in temperature trends. Statistical analysis of daily minimum temperatures for the period between 1965 and 2006 suggest that there is no statistically significant increase in rural areas. In contrast to the findings of the previous studies, however, all the urban sites and difference between urban and rural pairs show significant increase in temperatures, a strong indication for the existence of urban heat island (UHI) affect over the region. Regional Climate Model was also utilized to assess the changes in temperature by the end of century for the region. The findings suggest that an increase of up to 5°C is possible. Climate change effects enforced with UHI have the potential to cause serious problems for the entire region and hence needs to be studied thoroughly.

Observed basin-wide propagation of Mediterranean water in the Black Sea

Mediterranean water entering the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait forms middepth intrusions that contribute to the salt, heat, and volume balances of the sea, ventilate its water column at intermediate depths and restrain the upward flux of hydrogen sulfide from deeper layers. Despite the importance for the Black Sea environment, the circulation of Mediterranean-origin water in the basin is fundamentally underexplored. Here we use hydrographic data collected from ships and Argo profiling floats to identify pathways of the Mediterranean intrusions in the general circulation system of the sea. While earlier the intrusions were observed primarily near the Bosphorus Strait, we present an evidence for their intermittent extensive propagation throughout the basin. We find that the main conduit for the intrusions is the southern limb of the Rim Current that carries the intruded water from the Bosphorus Strait eastward. A part of this eastward flow recirculates cyclonically into the interior of the sea, where traces of the intrusions gradually disappear because of mixing. We put forward the hypothesis that the formation of the most prominent intrusions is associated with strong cyclonic storms over the Bosphorus Strait, which lead to abnormally large influx of Mediterranean water.

Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air–sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of the inter-annual anomaly of surface air temperature and precipitation (P) over defined sub-regions. The Mediterranean water budget (E, P and E–P) estimates also show that the coupled model has high skill in the representation of water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. To conclude, the coupled model reproduces climatological land surface fields and the sea surface variables in the range of observation uncertainty and allow studying air–sea interaction and main regional climate characteristics of the basin.

Identifying the sensitivity of precipitation of Anatolian peninsula to Mediterranean and Black Sea surface temperature

This study investigates the intra-seasonal relationship between the sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean and Black Seas and the precipitation (SST–P) of the Anatolian peninsula. Furthermore, this study might also help to understand the underlying mechanisms behind the complex interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the region. The study presents a time-phase relationship analysis based simply on the lagged-correlations between SST and P, utilizing a large set of daily gridded observational products for precipitation (i.e. TRMM, GPCP, E-OBS and ERA-Interim) as well as in-situ observations and satellite derived gridded SST datasets (AVHRR), aiming to show the range of the uncertainty in the data. The analysis is also extended to investigate the possible link between surface flux components (FLX; shortwave, longwave, latent and sensible heat fluxes) and precipitation over the seas. The results clearly show a significant and strong relationship at intra-seasonal time scales between the sea surface temperatures of the surrounding seas and the precipitation over the Anatolian peninsula, depending on the analyzed season and dataset. In general, the strongest SST–P relationship appears in fall season, irrespective of the analyzed dataset. In this case, the all sub-basins of the peninsula are identified to exhibit strong sensitivity to the SST of the eastern and central Mediterranean, as well as the Black Sea. The analysis also indicates a strong SST–P relationship for the eastern Mediterranean, Levantine and Black Sea regions in winter and spring, but with a slightly lower level significance. It is also revealed that the strongest SST–P and FLX–P relationship over the sea appears in the western and central Mediterranean and Black Sea region.

Applying Scientific Workflow to ESM

As described in the previous section, a typical ESM application manages a series of different tasks, such as configuration, the building and running of the model on various computing resources, and the pre- and post-processing of the input data and model results, and, finally, the visualization of the results. Now-a-days, there are additional tasks concerned with the gathering of metadata about the run environment used, about the model itself and about the input and output data used in a particular run. Due to the complexity of the processes and the multi-component nature of the earth system models used, each of these tasks requires different levels of expertise and attention. If not supported well, the intricacies of these processes may prevent researchers from focusing on scientific issues, and may make it difficult, or even impossible, to undertake some earth system science problems.