Vladimir F. Krapivin

Mathematical Model for Global Ecological Investigations

Abstract The paper gives a schematic description of a mathematical model of the biosphere (MMB) representing interaction of the atmosphere with the land and ocean ecosystems. The model comprises blocks describing biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulphur, phosphorus and oxygen; global hydrologic balance in liquid, gaseous and solid phases; productivity of soil-plant formations with 30 types defined; photosynthesis in ocean ecosystems taking into account its depth and surface inhomogeneity; demographic processes and anthropogenic changes. The model is designed to be connected to a global climate model. Examples of using the MMB for estimating the state of the biosphere and its subsystems are presented.

Information technologies for remote monitoring of the environment

1. Towards the information technology for environmental monitoring.- 2. Survivability and biocomplexity.- 3. The NSS model as the GIMS component.- 4. The GIMS-based study of ocean and sea ecosystems.- 5. Decision making procedure in the GIMS.- 6. Passive remote technologe and data processing algorithms.- 7. GIMS- based method for vegetation microwave monitoring.- 8. Remote sensing instruments and carrying platforms that realize the GIMS- technology

An application of modelling technology to the study of radionuclear pollutants and heavy metals dynamics in the Angara–Yenisey river system

Abstract This paper considers the problem of the origin of the pollution level in the Yenisey river estuary which is located in north-central Siberia and empties into the Kara sea. In the framework of this problem, a joint American–Russian environmental and hydrophysical expedition to the Angara and Yenisey rivers of Siberia was accomplished in the summer of 1995. Using the results of the pollution measurements taken during this expedition, it becomes possible to begin the synthesis of the spatial mathematical model for pollution transport in the Angara–Yenisey river system. The model includes blocks describing the flows of pollutants from biogeochemical, hydrophysical and anthropogenic sources. The influence of soil–plant formations are considered. The model is designed for interactive use in the mode of a computer experiment. The results of model calculations and of the expedition are given.

Application of a global model to the study of Arctic basin pollution: radionuclides, heavy metals and oil hydrocarbons

Abstract The status of pollution of the Arctic basin is studied in ecological terms, and the interactions of the Arctic ecosystem with the global system are estimated. A spatial simulation model for the kinetics of pollutants in the Arctic basin is proposed in which the ecological and spatial distribution of the hydrological parameters is taken into account. The model includes blocks describing the flows of pollutants in the trophic chains, the exchange between the water–ice system and the atmosphere and the interaction of the water ecosystem with the global biosphere–climate system. A global model controls the inputs of the simulation model and makes it possible to compute the dynamics of the distribution of pollutants between the Arctic aquatories, which include the Central basin and the peripheral seas. The model uses both published data and the data of the US/Russian expedition to Siberia accomplished in the summer of 1995. Climatic and anthropogenic processes are described in the form of scenarios. The results of computer experiments are given demonstrating the advantages of the simulation model to forecast and to estimate the dynamics of radionuclides, heavy metals and oil hydrocarbons in the Arctic Seas. The total and local pictures of the spatial distribution of pollutants in the Arctic basin are given as functions of various environmental and anthropogenic parameters. It is concluded that the use of the global biospheric model enables the consideration of the interactions between the Arctic basin environment and adjoining territories. This allows estimates to be made of the consequences of the anthropogenic impact on the Arctic ecosystem.

New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science

This book provides new insights on the study of global environmental changes using the ecoinformatics tools and the adaptive-evolutionary technology of geoinformation monitoring. The main advantage of this book is that it gathers and presents extensive interdisciplinary expertise in the parameterization of global biogeochemical cycles and other environmental processes in the context of globalization and sustainable development. In this regard, the crucial global problems concerning the dynamics of the nature-society system are considered and the key problems of ensuring the systems sustainable development are studied. A new approach to the numerical modeling of the nature-society system is proposed and results are provided on modeling the dynamics of the systems characteristics with regard to scenarios of anthropogenic impacts on biogeochemical cycles, land ecosystems and oceans. The main purpose of this book is to develop a universal guide to information-modeling technologies for assessing the function of environmental subsystems under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions.

The estimation of the Peruvian current ecosystem by a mathematical model of biosphere

Abstract A spatial mathematical model of biosphere (MMB) proposed by the author in an earlier paper is used to describe the hierarchical structure of energy flows in the Peruvian current ecosystem (PCE). The trophic pyramid of the ecosystem includes phyto- and bacterioplankton, non-predatory and predatory zooplankton, three age stages of anchovy (larvae, young, commercial), predatory fishes, and birds. The state of the ecosystems in specific aquatoriums is determined by dissolved matter, detritus, nutrient salts, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and light intensity. The model incorporates spatial and time inhomogeneities in distribution of temperature and current directions. Variations in the biomass of living components of PCE are described by a system of balance equations with assigned initial and boundary conditions. Drifting of non-active components in the current, vertical migrations of fishes and birds were taken into account. The PCE state is estimated with the survivability function. The model can be employed both to obtain dynamic characteristics of the PCE and to consider various hypothetic situations that are likely to arise should the conditions in the environment be violated. The examples of such use of the model are given. A dependence of the survivability function is studied with the variations of initial and boundary conditions in the water temperature, illumination, dissolved oxygen, nutrient and vertical water flux. In partial conclusions it is shown that the variations in the water temperature within the limits of ±5 K and the change in vertical advection from 3 · 10 −4 to 10 −1 cm/s are safe for the PCE functioning.

A sequential analysis method for the prediction of tropical hurricanes

Transition processes between different situations in the ocean–atmosphere system are studied by means of the methods of sequential analysis. An instability indicator is introduced to be used as the generalized characteristics of the state for this system. The indicator is evaluated based on the data obtained from the TAO/TRITON&PIRATA system of anchored buoys and other meteorological stations located in the tropical zone of the Worlds oceans. It is shown that the combination of sequential and cluster analysis with the percolation model allows the detection of a tropical hurricane 1–2 days in advance of its initiation.

The Earth’s Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability

This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled “nature-society system (NSS) model”, through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.

GIMS-based method for vegetation microwave monitoring

The objective of this paper is threefold: (1) To present a working methodology for the combined use of modeling technology and microwave remote-sensing measurements in the assessment of attenuation of electromagnetic waves by the vegetation cover; (2) To illustrate this methodology with computer calculations of the attenuation for various soil-plant formations; (3) To give a perspective of the developed methodology applied to the study of global environmental change, including the radiative forcing problem.

Modeling the carbon and nitrogen cycles

The issues of air pollution are inextricably linked to the mechanisms underlying the physicochemical functioning of the biosphere which together with the atmosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere, and the hydrosphere constitute the climate system. We herewith present a review of the achievements and unresolved problems concerning the modeling of the biochemical cycles of basic chemicals of the climate system, such as carbon and nitrogen. Although the achievements in this area can roughly describe the carbon and nitrogen cycles, serious problems still remain associated with the accuracy and precision of the processes and assessments employed in the relevant modeling.