Yosuke Niwa

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Analysis of synoptic-scale variations for the period 2002-2003

The ability to reliably estimate CO2 fluxes from current in situ atmospheric CO2 measurements and future satellite CO2 measurements is dependent on transport model performance at synoptic and shorter timescales. The TransCom continuous experiment was designed to evaluate the performance of forward transport model simulations at hourly, daily, and synoptic timescales, and we focus on the latter two in this paper. Twenty-five transport models or model variants submitted hourly time series of nine predetermined tracers (seven for CO2) at 280 locations. We extracted synoptic-scale variability from daily averaged CO2 time series using a digital filter and analyzed the results by comparing them to atmospheric measurements at 35 locations. The correlations between modeled and observed synoptic CO2 variabilities were almost always largest with zero time lag and statistically significant for most models and most locations. Generally, the model results using diurnally varying land fluxes were closer to the observations compared to those obtained using monthly mean or daily average fluxes, and winter was often better simulated than summer. Model results at higher spatial resolution compared better with observations, mostly because these models were able to sample closer to the measurement site location. The amplitude and correlation of model-data variability is strongly model and season dependent. Overall similarity in modeled synoptic CO2 variability suggests that the first-order transport mechanisms are fairly well parameterized in the models, and no clear distinction was found between the meteorological analyses in capturing the synoptic-scale dynamics.

The Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model: description and development

This article reviews the development of a global non-hydrostatic model, focusing on the pioneering research of the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). Very high resolution global atmospheric circulation simulations with horizontal mesh spacing of approximately O (km) were conducted using recently developed supercomputers. These types of simulations were conducted with a specifically designed atmospheric global model based on a quasi-uniform grid mesh structure and a non-hydrostatic equation system. This review describes the development of each dynamical and physical component of NICAM, the assimilation strategy and its related models, and provides a scientific overview of NICAM studies conducted to date.

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2 : experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002

[1] A forward atmospheric transport modeling experiment has been coordinated by the TransCom group to investigate synoptic and diurnal variations in CO2. Model simulations were run for biospheric, fossil, and air-sea exchange of CO2 and for SF6 and radon for 2000-2003. Twenty-five models or model variants participated in the comparison. Hourly concentration time series were submitted for 280 sites along with vertical profiles, fluxes, and meteorological variables at 100 sites. The submitted results have been analyzed for diurnal variations and are compared with observed CO2 in 2002. Mean summer diurnal cycles vary widely in amplitude across models. The choice of sampling location and model level account for part of the spread suggesting that representation errors in these types of models are potentially large. Despite the model spread, most models simulate the relative variation in diurnal amplitude between sites reasonably well. The modeled diurnal amplitude only shows a weak relationship with vertical resolution across models; differences in near-surface transport simulation appear to play a major role. Examples are also presented where there is evidence that the models show useful skill in simulating seasonal and synoptic changes in diurnal amplitude.

Imposing strong constraints on tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes using passenger aircraft based measurements

[1] Because very few measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are available in the tropics, estimates of surface CO2 fluxes in tropical regions are beset with considerable uncertainties. To improve estimates of tropical terrestrial fluxes, atmospheric CO2 inversion was performed using passenger aircraft based measurements of the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project in addition to the surface measurement data set of GLOBALVIEW–CO2. Regional monthly fluxes at the earth’s surface were estimated using the Bayesian synthesis approach focusing on the period 2006–2008 using the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model-based Transport Model (NICAM-TM). By adding the aircraft to the surface data, the posterior flux errors were greatly reduced; specifically, error reductions of up to 64% were found for tropical Asia regions. This strong impact is closely related to efficient vertical transport in the tropics. The optimized surface fluxes using the CONTRAIL data were evaluated by comparing the simulated atmospheric CO2 distributions with independent aircraft measurements of the Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container (CARIBIC) project. The inversion with the CONTRAIL data yields the global carbon sequestration rates of 2.22 � 0.28 Pg C yr � 1 for the terrestrial biosphere and 2.24 � 0.27 Pg C yr � 1 for the oceans (the both are adjusted by riverine input of CO2). For the first time the CONTRAIL CO2 measurements were used in an inversion system to identify the areas of greatest impact in terms of reducing flux uncertainties.

The carbon budget of South Asia

The source and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) due to anthropogenic and natural biospheric activities were estimated for the South Asian region (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). Flux estimates were based on top-down methods that use inversions of atmospheric data, and bottom-up methods that use field observations, satellite data, and terrestrial ecosystem models. Based on atmospheric CO 2 inversions, the net biospheric CO 2 flux in South Asia (equivalent to the Net Biome Productivity, NBP) was a sink, estimated at −104 ± 150 Tg C yr −1 during 2007–2008. Based on the bottom-up approach, the net biospheric CO 2 flux is estimated to be −191 ± 193 Tg C yr −1 during the period of 2000–2009. This last net flux results from the following flux components: (1) the Net Ecosystem Productivity, NEP (net primary production minus heterotrophic respiration) of −220 ± 186 Tg C yr −1 (2) the annual net carbon flux from land-use change of −14 ± 50 Tg C yr −1 , which resulted from a sink of −16 Tg C yr −1 due to the establishment of tree plantations and wood harvest, and a source of 2 Tg C yr −1 due to the expansion of croplands; (3) the riverine export flux from terrestrial ecosystems to the coastal oceans of +42.9 Tg C yr −1 ; and (4) the net CO 2 emission due to biomass burning of +44.1 ± 13.7 Tg C yr −1 . Including the emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels of 444 Tg C yr −1 for the 2000s, we estimate a net CO 2 land–atmosphere flux of 297 Tg C yr −1 . In addition to CO 2 , a fraction of the sequestered carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is released to the atmosphere as CH 4 . Based on bottom-up and top-down estimates, and chemistry-transport modeling, we estimate that 37 ± 3.7 Tg C yr −1 were released to atmosphere from South Asia during the 2000s. Taking all CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes together, our best estimate of the net land–atmosphere CO 2 -equivalent flux is a net source of 334 Tg C yr −1 for the South Asian region during the 2000s. If CH 4 emissions are weighted by radiative forcing of molecular CH 4 , the total CO 2 -equivalent flux increases to 1148 Tg C yr −1 suggesting there is great potential of reducing CH 4 emissions for stabilizing greenhouse gases concentrations.

Annual variation of CH4 emissions from the middle taiga in West Siberian Lowland (2005–2009): a case of high CH4 flux and precipitation rate in the summer of 2007

ABSTRACT We described continuous measurements of CH4 and CO2 concentration obtained at two sites placed in the middle taiga, Karasevoe (KRS) and Demyanskoe (DEM), in West Siberian Lowland (WSL) from 2005 to 2009. Although both CH4 and CO2 accumulation (ΔCH4 and ΔCO2) during night-time at KRS in June and July 2007 showed an anomalously high concentration, higher ratios of ΔCH4/ΔCO2 compared with those in other years indicated that a considerably higher CH4 flux occurred relative to the CO2 flux. The daily CH4 flux calculated with the ratio of ΔCH4/ΔCO2 and terrestrial biosphere CO2 flux from an ecosystem model showed a maximum in July at the both sites. Although anomalously high flux was observed in June and July 2007 at KRS, only a small flux variation was observed at DEM. The high regional CH4 flux in June and July 2007 at KRS was reproduced using a process-based ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT), in response to high water table depth caused by the anomalously high precipitation during the summer of 2007.

Quantification of emission estimates of CO 2 , CH 4 and CO for East Asia derived from atmospheric radon-222 measurements over the western North Pacific

ABSTRACT Emissions of CO, CH4 and CO2 in East Asia were estimated using the atmospheric concentration of 222Rn measured at Minamitorishima (MNM) and Yonagunijima (YON) with a high-precision 222Rn measuring system. The 222Rn measurements showed a distinct seasonal variation, as well as enhanced 222Rn (ERN) events associated with high-frequency synoptic variations. The enhancements of CO, CH4 and CO2 coincided with the ERN events at MNM and YON. The enhancement ratios ΔCH4/ΔRn, ΔCO2/ΔRn and ΔCO/ΔRn calculated for the ERN events and corrected for the radioactive decay of 222Rn during the transport were used to estimate the emissions of CO, CH4 and CO2 by multiplying a constant 222Rn exhalation rate of 1.0 atom cm−2 s−1 and the associated catchment area estimated by a 3D transport model. By modifying the categorisation of the sources, the 222Rn-derived emissions of CO2 and CH4 were found to be in agreement with the published emission databases. As for the CO emission, results of our study were consistent with the REAS CO emission database but showed that the EDGAR database underestimates the CO emission over East Asia by about 44%. It is demonstrated that the 222Rn tracer method used in this study could provide a useful and independent tool to verify the trace gas emissions in East Asia.

Relative contribution of transport/surface flux to the seasonal vertical synoptic CO2 variability in the troposphere over Narita

ABSTRACT Frequent CO2 measurements obtained by commercial aircraft provide a unique, quasi-continuous record of free-tropospheric CO2 variability. Vertically-resolved synoptic-scale fluctuations of CO2 over Narita International Airport (lat 35.8°N, 140.4°E, 43 m above sea-level) were investigated from November 2005 to March 2009, and combined with analyses of results from a transport model simulation for the year 2007 to retrieve information on sources contributing to the observed variability. The synoptic-scale variability of the observed CO2 mixing ratio, represented by the standard deviation (SD) from the fitted curves, increased in the upper troposphere in the spring, with a noticeable increase at all altitudes in the summer. This seasonal/altitudinal change of the observed SD was shown to be statistically significant throughout the observation period, and the model result agreed with the observation except for the underestimation of the summertime SD. Tagged simulations were conducted to evaluate the relative contribution of the regional fluxes to the synoptic-scale variability over Narita. The results indicate that the major contribution to the free troposphere (FT) variability was made by the fluxes in East Asia, while the Japanese fluxes contributed mostly to the variability in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the relative influence of transport and of flux magnitude on the CO2 SD over Narita for 2007. It was found that a change in the surface flux magnitude could affect the altitudinal distribution of the annual SD over Narita as follows: 41 and 3% at 9 km, 61 and 4% at 5 km, 19 and 83% at 0.5 km when the fossil fuel flux from East Asia and Japan was doubled, respectively. These results are qualitative in nature (since SD is a non-linear function of concentration and flux), but do indicate that the CO2 SD over Narita is more sensitive to the fluctuation in the atmospheric transport (synoptic-scale meteorological variability) in the FT, while showing much more sensitivity to the magnitude of local fluxes in the PBL. The results also point to the fact that vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2 variability at the synoptic scale could potentially provide a useful additional constraint in the inversion analysis of regional CO2 fluxes.

Long-term change of CO2 latitudinal distribution in the upper troposphere

We analyzed temporal variations in the annual mean latitudinal distribution of upper tropospheric CO2 using the aircraft measurements taken between Japan and Australia over the period 1993–2013, plus earlier data from 1984 and 1985. The observed CO2 latitudinal gradient between 30°N and 30°S showed large interannual variations that are clearly associated with El Nino–Southern Oscillation events. We also found long-term increasing trends of the CO2 gradients in the most northern latitudes that are proportionally associated with increasing fossil fuel emissions, while decreasing trends were found around the tropical regions. Extrapolation of the changes in the CO2 gradient back to zero fossil fuel emissions showed a negative north-south gradient with lower CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as a regional CO2 elevation in the tropical regions. These features provide a useful constraint on model estimates of CO2 fluxes from the ocean and the land biosphere.

Seasonal changes of CO2, CH4, N2O, and SF6 in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over the Eurasian continent observed by commercial airliner

The seasonal variations of greenhouse gases at about 11 km altitude were analyzed from monthly air samples collected aboard a commercial airliner flying between Europe and Japan from April 2012 to March 2014. Compared to lower latitudes, the upper troposphere between 50 and 70°N showed higher CH4 and SF6 and an earlier seasonal phase of CO2. However, N2O values were similar to those in the subtropics. CH4, N2O, and SF6 in the lower stratosphere with potential temperature of up to 50 K above the tropopause showed seasonal variations with maxima in November/December and minima in April/May. At potential temperatures of 37.5–50 K above the tropopause, SF6 age was estimated to be about 22 months in May and 9 months in November. This strong seasonal variation is explained by the subsidence of high-stratospheric air in spring and the effective flushing of the lowermost stratospheric air with tropospheric air in autumn.