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Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

A wetting and drying scheme for ROMS

The processes of wetting and drying have many important physical and biological impacts on shallow water systems. Inundation and dewatering effects on coastal mud flats and beaches occur on various time scales ranging from storm surge, periodic rise and fall of the tide, to infragravity wave motions. To correctly simulate these physical processes with a numerical model requires the capability of the computational cells to become inundated and dewatered. In this paper, we describe a method for wetting and drying based on an approach consistent with a cell-face blocking algorithm. The method allows water to always flow into any cell, but prevents outflow from a cell when the total depth in that cell is less than a user defined critical value. We describe the method, the implementation into the three-dimensional Regional Oceanographic Modeling System (ROMS), and exhibit the new capability under three scenarios: an analytical expression for shallow water flows, a dam break test case, and a realistic application to part of a wetland area along the Georgia Coast, USA.

Salt marsh erosion rates and boundary features in a shallow Bay

Herein, we investigate the relationship between wind waves, salt marsh erosion rates, and the planar shape of marsh boundaries by using aerial images and the numerical model Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport Modeling System (COAWST). Using Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, as a test site, we found that salt marsh erosion rates maintain a similar trend in time. We also found a significant relationship between salt marsh erosion rates and the shape of marsh boundaries which could be used as a geomorphic indicator of the degradation level of the marsh. Slowly eroding salt marshes are irregularly shaped with fractal dimension higher than rapidly deteriorating marshes. Moreover, for low-wave energy conditions, there is a high probability of isolated and significantly larger than average failures of marsh portions causing a long-tailed distribution of localized erosion rates. Finally, we confirm the existence of a significant relationship between salt marsh erosion rate and wind waves exposure. Results suggest that variations in time in the morphology of salt marsh boundaries could be used to infer changes in frequency and magnitude of external agents.

Sediment chemistry and toxicity in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey: Pre- and post-Hurricane Sandy, 2012–13

Hurricane Sandy made landfall in Barnegat Bay, October, 29, 2012, damaging shorelines and infrastructure. Estuarine sediment chemistry and toxicity were investigated before and after to evaluate potential environmental health impacts and to establish post-event baseline sediment-quality conditions. Trace element concentrations increased throughout Barnegat Bay up to two orders of magnitude, especially north of Barnegat Inlet, consistent with northward redistribution of silt. Loss of organic compounds, clay, and organic carbon is consistent with sediment winnowing and transport through the inlets and sediment transport modeling results. The number of sites exceeding sediment quality guidance levels for trace elements tripled post-Sandy. Sediment toxicity post-Sandy was mostly unaffected relative to pre-Sandy conditions, but at the site with the greatest relative increase for trace elements, survival rate of the test amphipod decreased (indicating degradation). This study would not have been possible without comprehensive baseline data enabling the evaluation of storm-derived changes in sediment quality.

Estimating time-dependent connectivity in marine systems

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 43 (2016): 1193–1201, doi:10.1002/2015GL066888.

Physical response of a back‐barrier estuary to a post‐tropical cyclone

This paper presents a modeling investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport response of Chincoteague Bay (VA/MD, USA) to Hurricane Sandy using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) modeling system. Several simulation scenarios with different combinations of remote and local forces were conducted to identify the dominant physical processes. While 80% of the water level increase in the bay was due to coastal sea level at the peak of the storm, a rich spatial and temporal variability in water surface slope was induced by local winds and waves. Local wind increased vertical mixing, horizontal exchanges, and flushing through the inlets. Remote waves (swell) enhanced southward flow through wave setup gradients between the inlets, and increased locally generated wave heights. Locally generated waves had a negligible effect on water level but reduced the residual flow up to 70% due to enhanced apparent roughness and breaking-induced forces. Locally generated waves dominated bed shear stress and sediment resuspension in the bay. Sediment transport patterns mirrored the interior coastline shape and generated deposition on inundated areas. The bay served as a source of fine sediment to the inner shelf, and the ocean-facing barrier island accumulated sand from landward-directed overwash. Despite the intensity of the storm forcing, the bathymetric changes in the bay were on the order of centimeters. This work demonstrates the spectrum of responses to storm forcing, and highlights the importance of local and remote processes on back-barrier estuarine function.

Hydrokinetic Tidal Energy Resource Assessments Using Numerical Models

Hyrdokinetic tidal energy is the conversion of tidal current kinetic energy to another more useful form, frequently electricity. As with any other form of renewable energy, resource assessments are essential for the tidal energy project planning and design process. While tidal currents have significant spatial and temporal variability, the predictability of tidal flows makes deterministic modeling a suitable methodology for hydrokinetic tidal energy resource assessments. The scope (theoretical, technical, or practical resource) and scale (turbine, region, or project) of the assessment determine the basic concepts and methodology to be utilized and are described in this chapter. At the turbine scale, the technical resource is frequently quantified as the annual energy production (AEP) computed based on the velocity probability distribution for the specific location as well as the turbine properties. The uncertainty associated with the estimates of the AEP is highly dependent on the accuracy of the tidal constituent amplitudes and phases. Regional resource assessments are frequently used to determine the feasibility of tidal power at the scale of an estuary, using numerical models to predict the spatial distribution of the power density. In addition, simplified models or even analytical analysis can be done to produce an upper bound on the regional theoretical power, although with a high level of uncertainty due to the simplifications and assumptions. Resource assessments at the project scale provide both the theoretical and the technical energy as well as the practical energy accounting for many additional constraints, including social, economic, and environmental restrictions. The International Electrotechnical Commission technical specification for tidal energy resource assessments (IEC 2015) provides the essential guidelines for performing project-scale resource assessments. These guidelines include minimum grid resolution requirements as well as model calibration and validation procedures. In addition, larger projects will need to include the effect of energy extraction on the flow field to produce more accurate estimates of velocity probability distributions for computing the technical resource. An example case study demonstrating a regional feasibility and project-scale resource assessment is presented in this chapter.

Conceptual salt marsh units for wetland synthesis: Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey

The salt marsh complex of the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (EBFNWR), which spans over Great Bay, Little Egg Harbor, and Barnegat Bay (New Jersey, USA), was delineated to smaller, conceptual marsh units by geoprocessing of surface elevation data. Flow accumulation based on the relative elevation of each location is used to determine the ridge lines that separate each marsh unit while the surface slope is used to automatically assign each unit a drainage point, where water is expected to drain through. Through scientific efforts associated with the Hurricane Sandy Science Plan, the U.S. Geological Survey has started to expand national assessment of coastal change hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands. The intent is to provide federal, state, and local managers with tools to estimate their vulnerability and ecosystem service potential. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services. EBFNWR was selected as a pilot study. Recent research shows that sediment budgets of microtidal marsh complexes on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR) despite differences in sea-level rise, tidal range, elevation, vegetation, and stressors. This highlights UVVR as a broadly applicable indicator of microtidal marsh stability. It is also relatively quicker and less labor intensive compared to quantifying integrative sediment budgets and the associated transport mechanisms that requires extended tidal-timescale observations of sediment transport. UVVR indicates the link between open-water conversion processes and sediment transport, providing consistent results across a geomorphic and climatic spectrum of microtidal marshes, hence can be an independent measure of marsh health. Potentially, tracking future changes to UVVR may allow for widespread mapping of spatially variable vulnerability across microtidal marshes worldwide.

Mean tidal range in salt marsh units of Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey

Biomass production is positively correlated with mean tidal range in salt marshes along the Atlantic coast of the United States of America. Recent studies support the idea that enhanced stability of the marshes can be attributed to increased vegetative growth due to increased tidal range. This dataset displays the spatial variation mean tidal range (i.e. Mean Range of Tides, MN) in the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (EBFNWR), which spans over Great Bay, Little Egg Harbor, and Barnegat Bay in New Jersey, USA. MN was based on the calculated difference in height between mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW) using the VDatum (v3.5) software (http://vdatum.noaa.gov/). The input elevation was set to zero in VDatum to calculate the relative difference between the two datums. As part of the Hurricane Sandy Science Plan, the U.S. Geological Survey has started a Wetland Synthesis Project to expand National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands. The intent is to provide federal, state, and local managers with tools to estimate their vulnerability and ecosystem service potential. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services. EBFNWR was selected as a pilot study area.Biomass production is positively correlated with mean tidal range in salt marshes along the Atlantic coast of the United States of America. Recent studies support the idea that enhanced stability of the marshes can be attributed to increased vegetative growth due to increased tidal range. This dataset displays the spatial variation mean tidal range (i.e. Mean Range of Tides, MN) in the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (EBFNWR), which spans over Great Bay, Little Egg Harbor, and Barnegat Bay in New Jersey, USA. MN was based on the calculated difference in height between mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW) using the VDatum (v3.5) software (http://vdatum.noaa.gov/). The input elevation was set to zero in VDatum to calculate the relative difference between the two datums. As part of the Hurricane Sandy Science Plan, the U.S. Geological Survey has started a Wetland Synthesis Project to expand National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands. The intent is to provide federal, state, and local managers with tools to estimate their vulnerability and ecosystem service potential. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services. EBFNWR was selected as a pilot study area.