Andrew Allan

Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change.

Incorporating Stakeholder Perspectives in Scenario Development

The incorporation of stakeholder views is integral to ecosystem service research from initiation to completion. Creating a clear link between research outputs and stakeholder needs places emphasis on stakeholder-identified issues and priorities and helps develop intervention recommendations that are relevant to local users of delta ecosystem services and national decision-makers. Stakeholder mapping is used to identify relevant institutions and local partners prior to one-to-one interviews and workshop participation. A range of interlinked issues, challenges and uncertainties across the social, economic and environmental landscape of Bangladesh are defined and used to develop trends under three future narratives: Business As Usual (BAU), More Sustainable (MS) and Less Sustainable (LS). Maintaining the involvement of stakeholders is a challenge, but provides a major benefit for integrated and credible analysis.

Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

Scenario development for integrated analysis focuses on adopting an interdisciplinary approach covering key elements of the biophysical environment as well as changes in livelihoods, education, economics and governance both locally and internationally. Most importantly, the development of these scenarios generates a dialogue across institutions, stakeholders and sectors, with the use of common data and agreement on shared qualitative and quantitative futures. The scenarios adopted combine three alternative future climates and three socio-economic development pathways. Quantification of these issues included estimation based on published data, expert knowledge and stakeholder engagement, particularly where data are most uncertain or unknown. This chapter demonstrates this approach for coastal Bangladesh.

Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

A flexible meta-model, the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), is developed to capture the socio-biophysical system of coastal Bangladesh as simply and efficiently as possible. Operating at the local scale, calculations occur efficiently using a variety of methods, including linear statistical emulators, which capture the behaviour of more complex models, internal process-based models and statistical associations. All components are tightly coupled, tested and validated, and their behaviour is explored with sensitivity tests. Using input data, the integrated model approximates the spatial and temporal change in ecosystem services and a number of livelihood, well-being, poverty and health indicators of archetypal households. Through the use of climate, socio-economic and governance scenarios plausible trajectories and futures of coastal Bangladesh can be explored.

Governance of Ecosystem Services Across Scales in Bangladesh

Ecosystem services are governed and affected by different legal, institutional and policy frameworks. Hence, formal documented policies, regulations and statutes of Bangladesh are examined where relevant. This facilitates greater understanding of the influence that governance has on the accessibility to the benefits derived and how this might then affect livelihoods and well-being. A range of factors are found to determine effectiveness in terms of general adaptive governance principles, with coordination, enforcement and rigidity being important issues. In addition, policy development in crucial areas may not be supported by associated legal frameworks, undermining implementation. However, workable (and dynamic) combinations of primary and secondary legislation are both possible and desirable to achieve flexible policy instruments.

An Integrated Approach Providing Scientific and Policy-Relevant Insights for South-West Bangladesh

Bangladesh is identified as an impact hotspot for sea-level rise in multiple studies. However, a range of other factors must be considered including catchment management, socio-economic development and governance quality, as well as delta plain biophysical processes. Taking an integrated assessment approach highlights that to 2050 future changes are more sensitive to human choice/policy intervention than climate change, ecosystem services diminish as a proportion of the economy with time, continuing historic trends and significant poverty persists for some households. Hence under favourable policy decisions, development could transform Bangladesh by 2050 making it less vulnerable to longer-term climate change and subsidence. Beyond 2050, the threats of climate change are much larger, requiring strategic adaptation responses and policy changes that must be initiated now.

Routledge Handbook of Water Law and Policy

Water plays a key role in addressing the most pressing global challenges of our time, including climate change adaptation, food and energy security, environmental sustainability and the promotion of peace and stability. This comprehensive handbook explores the pivotal place of law and policy in efforts to ensure that water enables positive responses to these challenges and provides a basis for sound governance. The book reveals that significant progress has been made in recent decades to strengthen the governance of water resource management at different scales, including helping to address international and sub-national conflicts over transboundary water resources. It demonstrates that ‘effective’ laws and policies are fundamental drivers for the safe, equitable and sustainable utilization of water. However, it is also shown that what might constitute an effective law or policy related to water resources management is still hotly debated. As such, the handbook provides an important and definitive reference text for all studying water governance and management.

The use of scenarios in legal education to develop futures thinking and sustainability competencies

Achieving sustainability requires a populace equipped to deal with complex, interacting and ever-changing realities as well as uncertain futures. There is however a significant lack of focus on developing sustainability competencies within legal and governance education. Legal education plays a key role in shaping sustainable futures. Long-term sustainability relies on lawyers, judges and policy-makers being able to make optimal decisions in the present when faced with significant uncertainty about the future. This paper discusses how the combination of problem-based learning (PBL) and scenario-based pedagogical approaches can provide an authentic contextualised learning environment to empower law students to deal with the challenges of global change. The paper highlights the potential of the approach to equip students with the skills to work through plausible future challenges; to consider a range of options; and to manage interacting environmental, social and economic issues in an adaptive fashion. The paper describes how the approach was applied in the context of the Water Law Master’s (LLM) course at the University of Dundee. The paper concludes with recommendations of how scenario-based approaches could be used in other contexts and further highlights the importance of such approaches in developing sustainability competencies through the legal curriculum.

Adaptive IWRM Responses to Cope with “What-If?” Scenarios

In Chaps. 2 to 9, various Geoinformatic approaches have been presented, that comprise the interdisciplinary systems analysis of the natural environment and its human dimension applied in the BRAHMATWINN project. Together with the vulnerability analysis introduced in the previous chapter, they provide a comprehensive assessment of the BRAHMATWINN basins environment and a quantifying analysis of the mechanisms and impacts of climate change on the hydrological dynamics, the availability of water balance components and vulnerability. This holistic system approach will be completed in this chapter by applying Geoinformatics for adapting existing and developing new IWRM strategies within the context of socioeconomic vulnerability, institutional capacities and governance.