Emily Barbour

Optimisation as a process for understanding and managing river ecosystems

Optimisation can assist in the management of riverine ecosystems through the exploration of multiple alternative management strategies, and the evaluation of trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In addition, it can facilitate communication and learning about the system. However, the effectiveness of optimisation in aiding decision making for ecological management is currently limited by four major challenges: identification and quantification of ecosystem objectives; representation of ecosystems in predictive simulation models; specification of objectives and management alternatives in an optimisation framework; and evaluation of model results against actual ecological outcomes. This study evaluates previous literature in ecology, optimisation and decision science, and provides a strategy for addressing the challenges identified. It highlights the need for better recognition and analysis of assumptions in optimisation modelling as part of a process that generates and shares knowledge. Optimisation can assist in the management and understanding of complex systems.We review the use of optimisation for ecosystem management in river systems.We highlight the challenges in formulating objectives, developing models, and applying optimisation for ecosystem management.Recommendations are provided to better recognise and address these challenges.Greater consideration of assumptions and limitations is needed to better inform decision making.

Incorporating Stakeholder Perspectives in Scenario Development

The incorporation of stakeholder views is integral to ecosystem service research from initiation to completion. Creating a clear link between research outputs and stakeholder needs places emphasis on stakeholder-identified issues and priorities and helps develop intervention recommendations that are relevant to local users of delta ecosystem services and national decision-makers. Stakeholder mapping is used to identify relevant institutions and local partners prior to one-to-one interviews and workshop participation. A range of interlinked issues, challenges and uncertainties across the social, economic and environmental landscape of Bangladesh are defined and used to develop trends under three future narratives: Business As Usual (BAU), More Sustainable (MS) and Less Sustainable (LS). Maintaining the involvement of stakeholders is a challenge, but provides a major benefit for integrated and credible analysis.

Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

Scenario development for integrated analysis focuses on adopting an interdisciplinary approach covering key elements of the biophysical environment as well as changes in livelihoods, education, economics and governance both locally and internationally. Most importantly, the development of these scenarios generates a dialogue across institutions, stakeholders and sectors, with the use of common data and agreement on shared qualitative and quantitative futures. The scenarios adopted combine three alternative future climates and three socio-economic development pathways. Quantification of these issues included estimation based on published data, expert knowledge and stakeholder engagement, particularly where data are most uncertain or unknown. This chapter demonstrates this approach for coastal Bangladesh.

Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

A flexible meta-model, the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), is developed to capture the socio-biophysical system of coastal Bangladesh as simply and efficiently as possible. Operating at the local scale, calculations occur efficiently using a variety of methods, including linear statistical emulators, which capture the behaviour of more complex models, internal process-based models and statistical associations. All components are tightly coupled, tested and validated, and their behaviour is explored with sensitivity tests. Using input data, the integrated model approximates the spatial and temporal change in ecosystem services and a number of livelihood, well-being, poverty and health indicators of archetypal households. Through the use of climate, socio-economic and governance scenarios plausible trajectories and futures of coastal Bangladesh can be explored.