Craig W. Hutton

Is shrimp farming a successful adaptation to salinity intrusion? A geospatial associative analysis of poverty in the populous Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta of Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh is one of the most populous deltas in the world, supporting as many as 140 million people. The delta is threatened by diverse environmental stressors including salinity intrusion, with adverse consequences for livelihood and health. Shrimp farming is recognised as one of the few economic adaptations to the impacts of the rapidly salinizing delta. Although salinity intrusion and shrimp farming are geographically co-located in the delta, there has been no systematic study to examine their geospatial associations with poverty. In this study, we use multiple data sources including Census, Landsat Satellite Imagery and soil salinity survey data to examine the extent of geospatial clustering of poverty within the delta and their associative relationships with salinity intensity and shrimp farming. The analysis was conducted at the union level, which is the lowest local government administrative unit in Bangladesh. The findings show a strong clustering of poverty in the delta, and whilst different intensities of salinization are significantly associated with increasing poverty, neither saline nor freshwater shrimp farming has a significant association with poverty. These findings suggest that whilst shrimp farming may produce economic growth, in its present form it has not been an effective adaptation for the poor and marginalised areas of the delta. The study demonstrates that there are a series of drivers of poverty in the delta, including salinization, water logging, wetland/mudflats, employment, education and access to roads, amongst others that are discernible spatially, indicating that poverty alleviation programmes in the delta require strengthening with area-specific targeted interventions.

A combined spectral and object-based approach to transparent cloud removal in an operational setting for Landsat ETM+

The automated cloud cover assessment (ACCA) algorithm has provided automated estimates of cloud cover for the Landsat ETM+ mission since 2001. However, due to the lack of a band around 1.375 μm, cloud edges and transparent clouds such as cirrus cannot be detected. Use of Landsat ETM+ imagery for terrestrial land analysis is further hampered by the relatively long revisit period due to a nadir only viewing sensor. In this study, the ACCA threshold parameters were altered to minimise omission errors in the cloud masks. Object-based analysis was used to reduce the commission errors from the extended cloud filters. The method resulted in the removal of optically thin cirrus cloud and cloud edges which are often missed by other methods in sub-tropical areas. Although not fully automated, the principles of the method developed here provide an opportunity for using otherwise sub-optimal or completely unusable Landsat ETM+ imagery for operational applications. Where specific images are required for particular research goals the method can be used to remove cloud and transparent cloud helping to reduce bias in subsequent land cover classifications.

Dependence on agriculture and ecosystem services for livelihood in Northeast India and Bhutan: vulnerability to climate change in the Tropical River Basins of the Upper Brahmaputra

The Upper Brahmaputra River Basin is prone to natural disasters and environmental stresses (floods, droughts and bank erosion, delayed rainfall, among others) creating an environment of uncertainty and setting the basin back in terms of socio-economic development. The climate change literature shows that agriculture and ecosystems and their services are highly climate sensitive, yet they are the main sources of livelihood that supports a large proportion of residents of the tributaries of the Brahmaputra River Basin. The continuous depletion of ecosystems and loss of agricultural outputs resulting from environmental stressors has a substantial impact on the socio-economic wellbeing of the basins residents, particularly the vulnerable rural poor. This paper uses spatially explicit data from Census, Household Surveys and Earth Observation to develop a transferable methodological approach which investigates the extent of dependence on agriculture and ecosystems as a source of livelihood in the contrasting sub-basins of the Brahmaputra River in the State of Assam, India and Bhutan, and the risk to these livelihood dependencies in these sub-basins due to potential environmental impacts of climate change. The results from this study constitute a case study in the development of a systematic and spatially explicit set of tools that inform and assist policy makers in the appropriate interventions to secure the livelihood benefits of sustainably managed agriculture in the face of environmental change.

Making SDGs work for climate change hotspots

The impacts of climate change on peoples livelihoods have been widely documented. It is expected that climate and environmental change will hamper poverty reduction, or even exacerbate poverty in some or all of its dimensions. Changes in the biophysical environment, such as droughts, flooding, water quantity and quality, and degrading ecosystems, are expected to affect opportunities for people to generate income. These changes, combined with a deficiency in coping strategies and innovation to adapt to particular climate change threats, are in turn likely to lead to increased economic and social vulnerability of households and communities, especially amongst the poorest.

Hazard, vulnerability and risk on the Brahmaputra basin: a case study of river bank erosion

The authors present an assessment of risk from river bank erosion in the Brahmaputra river basin. The concept of risk is conceptualised in the context of socio-economic vulnerability, and the potential for exposure to hazard. By addressing both the physical hazard and the variations across the socio-economic surface the approach presented attempts to spatially combine these parameters to provide a risk surface for use by policy makers and decision makers at a number of administrative levels. The concept of vulnerability and risk as a description of the status of a society with respect to an imposed hazard such as flooding or the associated bank erosion exacerbated by climate change is deep rooted in a very broad research effort and its associated publications. In part, this reflects the complex evolution of the underlying notion of hazard - which itself shows the concurrent evolution of a series of strands each representing one disciplinary tradition. The concept of vulnerability has been very widely treated in the literature, and For present purposes an acceptable approach to vulnerability may be to start with an influential (but still controversial) established model by IPCC (2001) who have developed working definition - and then explore its ramifications in order to develop a set of working definitions and operational indicators for the project. This provides a pragmatic route towards a realistic target. It also offers a possible buffer against the common experience that the more sophisticated indices of vulnerability are strongly sensitive to contingent local/historical circumstances. This approach is explored within this chapter. The hazard posed by unabated bank erosion has been analysed with the help of satellite imagery based data and through adoption of Plan Form Index along with its threshold values develop for the Brahmaputra. The land loss to erosion is depicting a significantly rising trend which has obviously contributed to the impoverishment of the riverine population. The attendant uncertainties of climate change of hydrological and hydraulic river behaviour may exacerbate the channel instability of the Brahmaputra.

Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

Characterizing the multi-risk with respect to plausible natural hazards in the Balasore coast, Odisha, India: a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) appraisal

Coastal zones are often prone to several natural hazards, and where the coastal zone has high population density and infrastructural assets, these hazards can render severe loss to both life and properties. The present paper reports a comprehensive assessment of the multi-hazard and multi-risk (keeping in view the population and assets exposed to multi-hazards) in the Balasore coast, situated in the state of Odisha, India, facing the Bay of Bengal immediately to its east. In most of the multi-hazard and multi-risk assessments, the importance of any one hazard in relation to others is often determined arbitrarily. To overcome this limitation, this work presents a multi-criteria analysis implemented on six hazards, namely coastal erosion, storm surge, sea level rise, coastal flooding, tsunami, and earthquake. The respective hazards were ranked according to their relative weight computed by pair-wise comparison, and the overall multi-hazard map of the coast was prepared using weighted overlay technique in GIS environment. In order to assess the exposure, population density and urban assets of the study area were also mapped. Finally, the population and urban density data were overlain on the multi-hazard map in order to derive the final map portraying the multi-risk of the Balasore coast. Coastal erosion and storm surge inundation are the two most substantial natural hazards that regularly affect this coast. It is also observed that hazard from the perspective of coastal erosion is spatially concentrated along the central part of the coast, while in the southern part, the effect of storm surge is higher. The area in and around Chandipur, which is situated in the central portion of the Balasore coast, has been found to have the highest multi-risk, which also happens to be a popular tourist destination.

A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change.

Community-Level Environmental and Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives in Nawalparasi, Nepal

Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world and much of its rural population is at, or near, subsistence level. In recent years the timing and intensity of the monsoon in Nepal, as well as temperature extremities, have changed and this is severely impacting upon agriculture, the mainstay for over 80% of the population. Flash flooding and drought has led to landslides, water shortages and irrigation problems, which have adversely affected subsistence farming. This research conducted social surveys in rural locations to ascertain which adaptation initiatives have been implemented at the community level and determine how indigenous populations have adapted to climate-induced environmental change, with a focus on water resources. The principle research aim was to qualitatively understand how rural inhabitants have adapted/are adapting to changes in climate, the environment and water from a bottom-up perspective. Water is an essential resource for sustaining community livelihoods in rural Nepal, providing an indispensable resource for irrigation, consumption and sanitation. Research conducted in communities within the Nawalparasi district found disparities in living standards relative to resource availability. Results indicated that water stress is impacting on food security and there is a need to better adapt crop production and irrigation systems to ensure viable future sustainability. In addition, illiteracy, education facilities and accessibility were found to be strongly linked to community adaptability.

Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

Scenario development for integrated analysis focuses on adopting an interdisciplinary approach covering key elements of the biophysical environment as well as changes in livelihoods, education, economics and governance both locally and internationally. Most importantly, the development of these scenarios generates a dialogue across institutions, stakeholders and sectors, with the use of common data and agreement on shared qualitative and quantitative futures. The scenarios adopted combine three alternative future climates and three socio-economic development pathways. Quantification of these issues included estimation based on published data, expert knowledge and stakeholder engagement, particularly where data are most uncertain or unknown. This chapter demonstrates this approach for coastal Bangladesh.