B. A. Boville

The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM3*

The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3) is described. The changes in both physical and dynamical formulation from CCM2 to CCM3 are presented. The major differences in CCM3 compared to CCM2 include changes to the parameterization of cloud properties, clear sky longwave radiation, deep convection, boundary layer processes, and land surface processes. A brief description of each of these parameterization changes is provided. These modifications to model physics have led to dramatic improvements in the simulated climate of the CCM. In particular, the top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing is now in good agreement with observations, the Northern Hemisphere winter dynamical simulation has significantly improved, biases in surface land temperatures and precipitation have been substantially reduced, and the implied ocean heat transport is in very good agreement with recent observational estimates. The improvement in implied ocean heat transport is among the more important attributes of the CCM3 since it is used as the atmospheric component of the NCAR Climate System Model. Future improvements to the CCM3 are also discussed.

Local Versus Nonlocal Boundary-Layer Diffusion in a Global Climate Model

Abstract The results of a local and a nonlocal scheme for vertical diffusion in the atmospheric boundary layer are compared within the context of a global climate model. The global model is an updated version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2). The local diffusion scheme uses an eddy diffusivity determined independently at each point in the vertical, based on local vertical gradients of wind and virtual potential temperature, similar to the usual approach in global atmospheric models. The nonlocal scheme determines an eddy-diffusivity profile based on a diagnosed boundary-layer height and a turbulent velocity scale. It also incorporates nonlocal (vertical) transport effects for heat and moisture. The two diffusion schemes are summarized, and their results are compared with independent radiosonde observations for a number of locations. The focus herein is on the temperature and humidity structure over ocean, where the surface temperatures are specified, since the boundary-layer scheme interacts str...

Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950-2003

[1]xa0We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to produce a small (three-member) ensemble of simulations of the period 1950–2003. Comparison of model results against available observations shows that for the most part, the model is able to reproduce well the observed trends in zonal mean temperature and ozone, both as regards their magnitude and their distribution in latitude and altitude. Calculated trends in water vapor, on the other hand, are not at all consistent with observations from either the HALOE satellite instrument or the Boulder, Colorado, hygrosonde data set. We show that such lack of agreement is actually to be expected because water vapor has various sources of low-frequency variability (heating due to volcanic eruptions, the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Nino–Southern Oscillation) that can confound the determination of secular trends. The simulations also reveal the presence of other interesting behavior, such as the lack of any significant temperature trend near the mesopause, a decrease in the stratospheric age of air, and the rare occurrence of an extremely disturbed Southern Hemisphere winter.

Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

[1] Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lowerstratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Clynear 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease

Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing

The NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (WACCM3), is used to study the atmospheric response from the surface to the lower thermosphere to changes in solar and geomagnetic forcing over the 11-year solar cycle. WACCM3 is a general circulation model that incorporates interactive chemistry that solves for both neutral and ion species. Energy inputs include solar radiation and energetic particles, which vary significantly over the solar cycle. This paper presents a comparison of simulations for solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions. Changes in composition and dynamical variables are clearly seen in the middle and upper atmosphere, and these in turn affect terms in the energy budget. Generally good agreement is found between the model response and that derived from satellite observations, although significant differences remain. A small but statistically significant response is predicted in tropospheric winds and temperatures which is consistent with signals observed in reanalysis data sets.

Effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the dynamical, thermal, and chemical structure of the middle atmosphere

[1]xa0A simulation of the middle atmosphere is presented using a general circulation model (GCM) forced with observed sea surface temperature for the period 1950–2000. The GCM extends to the lower thermosphere and reproduces realistic dynamical and temperature distributions. The period contains several El Nino and La Nina events, which are identified using the NINO3 index. Composite anomalies of relevant meteorological fields are obtained by stratifying the northern winter season according to the NINO3 index. These anomalies have the structure of vertically propagating planetary waves extending from the troposphere to the mesosphere. Circulation anomalies in the middle atmosphere are accompanied by large temperature anomalies that are of opposite sign in the stratosphere and mesosphere, the former being warmer and the latter colder during El Nino events. Near the summer mesopause, changes in momentum deposition by parameterized gravity waves results in warming during El Nino. Detailed statistical analysis is used to determine the significance of these anomalies. A chemical/transport simulation is carried out using output from the GCM. It shows that when the lower stratosphere is colder (as during La Nina events), some ozone depletion takes place. Conversely, when the lower stratosphere is warmer and more disturbed, as is the case during El Nino events, heterogeneous chemical processes are inhibited.

The GCM–Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific Issues and Initial Results

Abstract To investigate the effects of the middle atmosphere on climate, the World Climate Research Programme is supporting the project Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC). A central theme of SPARC, to examine model simulations of the coupled troposphere—middle atmosphere system, is being performed through the initiative called GRIPS (GCM—Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC). In this paper, an overview of the objectives of GRIPS is given. Initial activities include an assessment of the performance of middle atmosphere climate models, and preliminary results from this evaluation are presented here. It is shown that although all 13 models evaluated represent most major features of the mean atmospheric state, there are deficiencies in the magnitude and location of the features, which cannot easily be traced to the formulation (resolution or the parameterizations included) of the models. Most models show a cold bias in all locations, apart from the tropical tropopause region wher...

On temperature inversions and the mesospheric surf zone

[1]xa0Mesospheric thermal inversions are investigated in a numerical simulation with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, an upward extension of the National Center for Atmospheric Researchs Community Climate Model. The seasonal character, spatial extent, and magnitude of the inversion layers are realistic during winter. In the model, the occurrence of wintertime inversions is a direct consequence of the rapid decay with height of vertically propagating planetary waves, which induces large temperature perturbations in the upper mesosphere to maintain hydrostatic equilibrium. The magnitude of the inversions is highly correlated with planetary wave amplitude, so that large inversions develop during episodes of planetary wave amplification. Gravity waves do not play a major direct role in the formation of the inversions because the largest thermal tendencies associated with gravity wave breaking occur well above the range of altitudes where inversions are found. However, gravity waves play an essential indirect role because they set up a critical line in the upper mesosphere where Rossby waves break in the mesospheric surf zone.

Representation of Clouds and Precipitation Processes in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3)

Abstract The parameterizations of clouds and precipitation processes have been revised considerably in the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) compared to its predecessors, CAM2 and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). The parameterizations in CAM3 are more realistic in their representation of processes affecting cloud liquid and ice particles and represent the linkages between processes more completely. This paper describes the changes to the representation of clouds in CAM3, including the partitioning of cloud water between liquid and ice phases, the determination of particle sizes and sedimentation rates, the phase and evaporation rate of precipitation, and the calculation of the cloud fraction. Parameterization changes between CCM3 and CAM2 introduced a significant cold bias at the tropical tropopause, resulting in a dry bias for stratospheric water vapor. Tests of the sensitivity of the tropical temperature profile and the tropical tropopause temperature to individual process changes...