Fernanda Aparecida Silva

IMPACTOS DE INDICADORES DE FRONTEIRA E DE COMPETITIVIDADE INTERNA NO COMÉRCIO BRASILEIRO DE FUMO

This paper aims to analyze the impact of border indicators and internal competiveness on international trade of tobacco. This study used the gravity model as a theoretical framework and the method used in the estimation of equations was the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likehood (PPML) model. For that, a sample of 78 importer’s Brazilian tobacco between 2006 to 2012 was used. The results show that border indicators of trade facilitation affected the international trade of Brazilian tobacco, highlighting the number of documents required to import and efficiency in government policies, which were statistically significant and showed the expected signal. The results for the distance, the TBT notifications, tariffs and GDP of importing countries are according to results found in the literature. It is concluded that international trade in Brazilian tobacco is affected both by border procedures as per indicators of internal competitiveness.

VOLATILIDADE DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO E SEUS EFEITOS SOBRE O FLUXO DE COMÉRCIO DOS PAÍSES DA AMÉRICA DO SUL

Due to the importance of the exchange rate in foreign trade and given that fluctuations in the exchange rate can modify the scale of prices among countries, this research aimed to identify the impact of the volatility of bilateral real exchange rate on trade flows among the South American countries. For that purpose, a gravity model was estimated using a sample of nine countries for a period between 1997 and 2011. The method used in the estimation of equations was the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likehood (PPML) model. The results showed that instability in exchange rates is detrimental to trade relations among the countries of South America, since greater exchange rate uncertainty pushes economic agents, in the long run, towards reducing their international trade activities due to high exposure to risk. Another important result was that Mercosul member countries have indeed benefited from the advantages offered by the block, such as the reduction of trade tariffs. Regarding the variable used to detect the effect of the subprime crisis in 2008, it was found an increase in the trade flow by South American countries in this period.