Flemming Splidsboel Hansen

Integration in the post-Soviet space

Established in 1991, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is still struggling to define a clear and commonly accepted identity for itself. As the member states hold very different views of the future CIS, they pull the organization in different directions, giving it a somewhat fuzzy character. While the Russian-led core is seeking closer integration, possibly even a transfer of decision-making to the supranational level, another group of states is insisting that the CIS should remain a loose and non-binding forum for cooperation. As a reflection of this reality, the CIS space is home to a number of other organizations which all take their members from the CIS circle. These organizations deliver what the CIS as a whole—because of its lowest common denominator policy—cannot do. The host of acronyms offer something to most member states, but they also cause the CIS space to be highly fragmented. Russia, in particular, has worked to bring all the different parts of the CIS closer together under its own leadership, but has remained largely unsuccessful. With its most recent initiative, a Eurasian Economic Union to be established by 2015, Russia is making a new effort to achieve what has failed so far. Little suggests that it will have any greater success now than before, and it therefore seems likely that the CIS will remain in the future also a complex organizational setting and a difficult challenge for Russia to handle.

The EU and Ukraine: Rhetorical Entrapment?

Abstract Employing the notion of ‘rhetorical entrapment’, this article offers a discussion of Ukraines EU membership prospects. It argues that while, for material reasons, the EU may want to keep Ukraine at arms length, normative commitments made earlier may compel it to offer much more. The study first looks at the domestic situation in Ukraine in light of the countrys call for accession talks to be opened in 2007, before it goes on to analyse the distribution of support for and opposition to the Ukrainian membership perspective among the EU member states.Abstract Employing the notion of ‘rhetorical entrapment’, this article offers a discussion of Ukraines EU membership prospects. It argues that while, for material reasons, the EU may want to keep Ukraine at arms length, normative commitments made earlier may compel it to offer much more. The study first looks at the domestic situation in Ukraine in light of the countrys call for accession talks to be opened in 2007, before it goes on to analyse the distribution of support for and opposition to the Ukrainian membership perspective among the EU member states.

Framing yourself into a corner: Russia, Crimea, and the minimal action space

A long-held axiom, political leaders are said to favour an action space sufficiently wide to allow them, as a minimum, a face-saving exit. This makes it particularly interesting for us to study those rare cases where political leaders seem to be deliberately reducing their policy options to the point of having merely one line to pursue. The handling by Russian President Vladimir Putin of the early 2014 crisis over Crimea, eventually leading to the annexation by Russia of the Ukrainian Peninsula on 21 March 2014, seems to represent such a rare case. Through the use of state-controlled media, a highly dichotomized framing of the crisis was presented to the Russian audience, essentially leaving Putin with just the one option of acting to “save” the Crimeans from the Ukrainian Government by bringing them into Russia.

Do the CIS member states share foreign policy preferences

Relying on a large quantitative data set from the United Nations General Assembly voting records in the years 1992–2013, this study analyses developments in the foreign policy preferences of the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]. It finds that the general level of disagreement between the member states as a whole has increased significantly and that policies have become more radicalised, causing member states to hold directly opposing views still more often. It also finds that a majority of member states, led by Russia, have converged on the foreign policy mean, causing the core of the organisation to become still denser. This suggests that the CIS will undergo a future development where member states will travel along increasingly different trajectories. This research has important implications for our understanding of the CIS and of the policies of the individual member states.

The Moscow Patriarchate and the Right to Conscientious Objection

Abstract In 2002 the Russian Duma adopted a law regulating the status of the countrys conscientious objectors. This study discusses the role of the Moscow Patriarchate – an influential norm entrepreneur – in this process. It shows how the Patriarchate has actively supported some of the more conservative forces – including the Russian Ministry of Defence – in their shaping of a restrictive law designed to make conscientious objection an unattractive alternative to regular military service. By celebrating military service and by questioning the legitimacy of religiously based opposition to conscription the Patriarchate has constructed a particular understanding of what could be termed ‘proper Russian behaviour’ and of how ‘we’ do things. While ‘we’ are willing to defend the Fatherland, ‘they’ are not. In return for its support the Russian Orthodox Church now enjoys a position of visibility and influence within the armed forces that is unrivalled by any other religious group in the country. In this way, a mutually beneficial relationship has been set up in which the military enjoys the spiritual and normative support of the church, while the Patriarchate enjoys the importance accorded to it by ‘official Russia’ as a cornerstone of Russian culture, past as well as current. This relationship serves to make life harder for would-be Russian conscientious objectors. Through its construction of ‘proper Russian behaviour’, the Patriarchate is adding to the stigma attached to conscientious objection, thereby raising the social costs for the young men who prefer not to do regular military service.

Russia’s relations with the West: ontological security through conflict

ABSTRACT Employing the notion of ‘ontological security’, this study situates ‘the West’ within the contemporary Russian identity debate. It argues that opposition to an allegedly hostile West has cemented a collective Russian understanding of ‘Russianness’ which emphasises so-called traditional values and norms, all of which are said to be under pressure from the West. This process, so the article, is fuelled partly by endogenous preferences found within the Russian electorate, partly by political engineering and manipulation. The outcome is a more conflictual relationship between Russia and the West but also greater ontological security on part of the Russian population.

An Argument for Reflexivity in Intelligence Work

Abstract In general, so it is argued in this article, the intelligence community would benefit from an agenda of greater and more conscious reflexivity. This increased self-awareness should as a minimum be applied to the areas of collection, analysis and communication, and it should bring members of the intelligence community to habitually reassess both procedures and standards of their work. Such a process promises to improve analysis, reduce misunderstandings in communication and increase public trust in the intelligence community. It will, in short, help the intelligence community prepare for a turbulent future.Abstract In general, so it is argued in this article, the intelligence community would benefit from an agenda of greater and more conscious reflexivity. This increased self-awareness should as a minimum be applied to the areas of collection, analysis and communication, and it should bring members of the intelligence community to habitually reassess both procedures and standards of their work. Such a process promises to improve analysis, reduce misunderstandings in communication and increase public trust in the intelligence community. It will, in short, help the intelligence community prepare for a turbulent future.