Giovanni Leoncini

Sensitivities of a Squall Line over Central Europe in a Convective-Scale Ensemble

AbstractConvective-scale ensemble simulations with perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions are performed to investigate the mechanisms and sensitivities of a central European convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). In this event, a “primary” squall line developed ahead of a decaying mesoscale convective system (MCS) upstream of the Vosges Mountains (France), weakened over the Rhine valley, then regenerated as a “secondary” squall line over the Black Forest Mountains (Germany). All ensemble members captured the squall-line evolution, but most suffered from a delay in the onset of convection and positional errors of 50–150 km over the COPS region. These errors in the secondary initiation were linked to errors in the primary initiation. Detailed analysis revealed a similar primary initiation mechanism in all members: in the ascending branch of a midlevel frontal circulation ahead of the MCS, convection initiated within a mesoscale moisture anomaly...

A Modified Kain–Fritsch Scheme and Its Application for the Simulation of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Vietnam

Abstract From 24 to 26 November 2004, an extreme heavy rainfall event occurred in the mountainous provinces of central Vietnam, resulting in severe flooding along local rivers. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, version 4.4, is used to simulate this event. In the present study, the convective parameterization scheme includes the original Kain–Fritsch scheme and a modified one in which a new diagnostic equation to compute updraft velocity, closure assumption, and trigger function are developed. These modifications take the vertical gradient of the Exner function perturbation into account, with an on–off coefficient to account for the role of the advective terms. According to the event simulations, the simulated precipitation shows that the modified scheme with the new trigger function gives much better results than the original one. Moreover, the interaction between convection and the larger-scale environment is much stronger near the midtroposphere where the return flow associated with lower-level ...

A Spatial View of Ensemble Spread in Convection Permitting Ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member‐member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales,spinuptimesforthemodel,andupscalegrowthoferrorsandforecastdifferences.Theensemblespread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales.

MOGREPS-UK Convection-Permitting Ensemble Products for Surface Water Flood Forecasting: Rationale and First Results

ABSTRACTFlooding is one of the costliest hazards in the United Kingdom. A large part of the annual flood damage is caused by surface water flooding that is a direct result of intense rainfall. Traditional catchment-based approaches to flood prediction are not applicable for surface water floods. However, given sufficiently accurate forecasts of rainfall intensity, with sufficient lead time, actions can be taken to reduce their impact. These actions require reliable information about severity and areas at risk that is clear and easily interpreted. The accuracy requirements, in particular, are very challenging, as they relate to prediction of intensities that occur only infrequently and that typically affect only small areas. In this paper, forecasts of intense rainfall from a new convection-permitting ensemble prediction system are evaluated using radar observations of intense rain and surface water flooding reports. An urban flooding case that occurred in Edinburgh in 2011 is first investigated and then a...

From Model-Based Parameterizations to Lookup Tables: An EOF Approach

The goal of this study is to transform the Harrington radiation parameterization into a transfer scheme or lookup table, which provides essentially the same output (heating rate profile and short- and longwave fluxes at the surface) at a fraction of the computational cost. The methodology put forth here does not introduce a new parameterization simply derived from the Harrington scheme but, rather, shows that given a generic parameterization it is possible to build an algorithm, largely not based on the physics, that mimics the outcome of the parent parameterization. The core concept is to compute the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of all of the input variables of the parent scheme, run the scheme on the EOFs, and express the output of a generic input sounding exploiting the input–output pairs associated with the EOFs. The weights are based on the difference between the input and EOFs water vapor mixing ratios. A detailed overview of the algorithm and the development of a few transfer schemes are also presented. Results show very good agreement (r 0.91) between the different transfer schemes and the Harrington radiation parameterization with a very significant reduction in computational cost (at least 95%).