Oddgeir Osland

Evaluating large transport infrastructure projects — a critical-constructive review of the theory of strategic misrepresentation

Large infrastructure projects are, as several international studies show (e.g. Wachs 1990, Flyvbjerg et al. 2005), often miscalculated. The same has been shown in a country like Norway (e.g. Odeck 2004, Strand 2004, Osland et al 2007), which has a long tradition for transport planning as well as key role of macro-economics in the planning system. The wrong estimates often imply underestimations of costs in planning and building infrastructure, whereas the positive effects on transport demand are often underestimated in the cases of road infrastructure, but more often overestimated in the case of rail infrastructure (Flyvbjerg et al. op.cit). In this paper we will, firstly, describe and criticize the methodology of the perspective on decision-making as strategic misrepresentations. Secondly we will attempt to provide a constructive development of this analytical approach, both theoretically informed by institutional theory and based on the plausible alternatives that Flyvbjerg et al have promoted in terms of institutional improvement.

Ecological Modernisation Revisited. In Norway

Abstract The international debate on ecological modernisation goes into the core problem in climate policies: (how) can we combine the economic growth that is part and parcel of the market economy and reduce climate gas emissions by technological innovations? This article enters this debate by distinguishing between (i) ecological modernisation as a theory for political change, i.e. a policy strategy, (ii) ecological modernisation as an ambitious general social theory addressing the relation between core societal institutions such as the democracy, the state and the market, and (iii) political science analyses of this policy strategy. Such analyses can examine the results and therefore the validity of the policy strategy as well as contribute to ecological modernisation as a social theory by setting the state and political autonomy at the centre of the analyses. This article aims to give such a contribution by focussing on a limited but important area, the transport sector and more specific passenger transport. The empirical analysis shows that in climate policies in general and in relation to the transport sector in particular, the state has taken a role as a knowledge producing, calculative state, integrating climate consequences in decision-making processes and using pricing/taxes and technical demands as key instruments to reduce climate emissions. In aviation deregulation and competition have led to better services and lower prices, and concomitantly to an increased demand, with strong increase in aviation travels. Reduced emissions per passenger kilometre in car travel have been outweighed by increased transport volume.