Saut Sagala

Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal, social and cultural influences

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting peoples capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how peoples decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.

Modeling the social resilience of mountain communities under volcanic risks

Herein is modeled the social resilience of communities under volcanic risks. The model is based on causal-relationship factors that contribute to the development of social resilience in communities. Resilience in the model is measured by the variable ‘intention to prepare’ and is predicted by factors at personal, community and institutional level. The hypothetical model was then proposed and tested using data from communities living in the southern flanks of Mt. Merapi, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Two significant results were obtained confirming that the social resilience of communities in the study area is mainly predicted by the community-level variables and institutional variables.