Susan Zimmerman

Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico

Significance Researchers have long invoked drought to explain the demise of many pre-Columbian Mesoamerican sites. However, the climatic history of many regions of Mesoamerica remains poorly understood. This includes the region around Cantona, a large fortified city in highland Mexico that was abandoned between 900 CE and 1050 CE. We used stable isotopes and elemental concentrations from lake sediments to reconstruct past climate, and found evidence of regional aridity between 500 CE and 1150 CE. In the initial phase of drought, Cantona’s population grew, possibly as a result of regional political instability. However, by 1050 CE, long-term environmental stress likely contributed to the city’s abandonment. Our work highlights the interplay of environmental and political factors in past human responses to climate change. There is currently no consensus on the importance of climate change in Mesoamerican prehistory. Some invoke drought as a causal factor in major cultural transitions, including the abandonment of many sites at 900 CE, while others conclude that cultural factors were more important. This lack of agreement reflects the fact that the history of climate change in many regions of Mesoamerica is poorly understood. We present paleolimnological evidence suggesting that climate change was important in the abandonment of Cantona between 900 CE and 1050 CE. At its peak, Cantona was one of the largest cities in pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, with a population of 90,000 inhabitants. The site is located in the Cuenca Oriental, a semiarid basin east of Mexico City. We developed a subcentennial reconstruction of regional climate from a nearby maar lake, Aljojuca. The modern climatology of the region suggests that sediments record changes in summer monsoonal precipitation. Elemental geochemistry (X-ray fluorescence) and δ18O from authigenic calcite indicate a centennial-scale arid interval between 500 CE and 1150 CE, overlaid on a long-term drying trend. Comparison of this record to Cantona’s chronology suggests that both the city’s peak population and its abandonment occurred during this arid period. The human response to climate change most likely resulted from the interplay of environmental and political factors. During earlier periods of Cantona’s history, increasing aridity and political unrest may have actually increased the city’s importance. However, by 1050 CE, this extended arid period, possibly combined with regional political change, contributed to the city’s abandonment.

3000 years of environmental change at Zaca Lake, California, USA

Climatic variations of the last few millennia can reveal patterns of variability beyond that recorded by the instrumental record. In this study we use pollen and sediments to generate a high resolution 3000 year record of vegetation and climate along the southern California coast. An increase in Pinus and Quercus pollen found in the top 100 years of the record is a result of known planting and fire suppression by the forest service. In the pre-historic record, a period of high Salix percentages and high pollen concentration from 500-250 cal yr BP represents the wettest period of the record and coincides with the Little Ice Age. We also find evidence for 3 warm periods between 1350 and 650 cal yr BP which are identified in the record by the presence of Pediastrum boryanum var. boryanum. The latter two of these periods, dating from 1070-900 and 700–650 cal yr BP correspond to Medieval Climatic Anomaly droughts identified in other records. In addition to these events, we identify a multi-centennial scale drought between 2700 and 2000 cal yr BP in Zaca Lake, corroborating evidence from across the Great Basin and extending the regional spread of this multi-centennial drought to southern California. Corresponding wetter conditions in the northwest indicate that the modern ENSO precipitation dipole also occurred during this persistent drought. Today this dipole is associated with La Nina conditions and we note a coincidence with intriguing evidence for a change in ENSO dynamics from marine records in the tropical Pacific. This dry period is remarkably persistent and has important implications for understanding the possible durations of drought conditions in the past in California.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.Persistent atmospheric ridging in the North Pacific steered storms away and led to the California drought of 2012-16. Here the authors use simulations to show that sea-ice changes trigger reorganization of tropical convection resulting in drying over California.

Paleoseismic history of the Fallen Leaf segment of the West Tahoe–Dollar Point fault reconstructed from slide deposits in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada

The West Tahoe–Dollar Point fault (WTDPF) extends along the western margin of the Lake Tahoe Basin (northern Sierra Nevada, western United States) and is characterized as its most hazardous fault. Fallen Leaf Lake, Cascade Lake, and Emerald Bay are three subbasins of the Lake Tahoe Basin, located south of Lake Tahoe, and provide an opportunity to image primary earthquake deformation along the WTDPF and associated landslide deposits. Here we present results from high-resolution seismic Chirp (compressed high intensity radar pulse) surveys in Fallen Leaf Lake and Cascade Lake, multibeam bathymetry coverage of Fallen Leaf Lake, onshore Lidar (light detection and ranging) data for the southern Lake Tahoe Basin, and radiocarbon dates from piston cores in Fallen Leaf Lake and Emerald Bay. Slide deposits imaged beneath Fallen Leaf Lake appear to be synchronous with slides in Lake Tahoe, Emerald Bay, and Cascade Lake. The temporal correlation of slides between multiple basins suggests triggering by earthquakes on the WTDPF system. If this correlation is correct, we postulate a recurrence interval of ∼3–4 k.y. for large earthquakes on the Fallen Leaf Lake segment of the WTDPF, and the time since the most recent event (∼4.5 k.y. ago) exceeds this recurrence time. In addition, Chirp data beneath Cascade Lake image strands of the WTDPF offsetting the lake floor as much as ∼7.5 m. The Cascade Lake data combined with onshore Lidar allow us to map the WTDPF continuously between Fallen Leaf Lake and Cascade Lake. This improved mapping of the WTDPF reveals the fault geometry and architecture south of Lake Tahoe and improves the geohazard assessment of the region.

Expanded glaciers during a dry and cold Last Glacial Maximum in equatorial East Africa

Glaciers on the worlds highest tropical mountains are among the most sensitive components of the cryosphere, yet the climatic controls that infl uence their fl uctuations are not fully under- stood. Here we present the fi rst 10 Be ages of glacial moraines in Africa and use these to assess the climatic conditions that infl uenced past tropical glacial extents. We applied 10 Be surface exposure dating to determine the ages of quartz-rich boulders atop moraines in the Rwenzori Mountains (~1°N, 30°E), located on the border of Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The 10 Be ages document expanded glaciers ca. 23.4 and 20.1 ka, indicating that glaciers in equatorial East Africa advanced during the global Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 26-19.5 ka). A comparison of these moraine ages with regional paleoclimate records indicates that Rwen- zori glaciers expanded contemporaneously with dry and cold conditions. Recession from the moraines occurred after ca. 20.1 ka, similar in timing to a rise in air temperature documented in East African lake records. Our results suggest that, on millennial time scales, past fl uctua- tions of Rwenzori glaciers were strongly infl uenced by air temperature.

Late Glacial and Holocene glacier fluctuations at Nevado Huaguruncho in the Eastern Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes

Discerning the timing and pattern of late Quaternary glacier variability in the tropical Andes is important for our understanding of global climate change. Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) ages (48) on moraines and radiocarbon-dated clastic sediment records from a moraine-dammed lake at Nevado Huaguruncho, Peru, document the waxing and waning of alpine glaciers in the Eastern Cordillera during the past ∼15 k.y. The integrated moraine and lake records indicate that ice advanced at 14.1 ± 0.4 ka, during the first half of the Antarctic Cold Reversal, and began retreating by 13.7 ± 0.4 ka. Ice retreated and paraglacial sedimentation declined until ca. 12 ka, when proxy indicators of glacigenic sediment increased sharply, heralding an ice advance that culminated in multiple moraine positions from 11.6 ± 0.2 ka to 10.3 ± 0.2 ka. Proxy indicators of glacigenic sediment input suggest oscillating ice extents from ca. 10 to 4 ka, and somewhat more extensive ice cover from 4 to 2 ka, followed by ice retreat. The lack of TCN ages from these intervals suggests that glaciers were less extensive than during the late Holocene. A final Holocene advance occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 0.4 to 0.2 ka) under colder and wetter conditions as documented in regional proxy archives. The pattern of glacier variability at Huaguruncho during the Late Glacial and Holocene is similar to the pattern of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, and provides evidence that prior to the LIA, ice extent in the eastern tropical Andes was decoupled from temperatures in the high-latitude North Atlantic.

Rapid and early deglaciation in the central Brooks Range, Arctic Alaska

Alpine-style glaciation was rare in the Arctic during the last glaciation because ice sheets occupied most of the glaciated high latitudes. Due to the tight coupling of alpine-glacier fluctuations with climate, the geomorphic evidence of such fluctuations in the Brooks Range, Alaska (USA), presents a unique opportunity to study past climate changes in this portion of the Arctic. We use cosmogenic 10 Be exposure dating to directly date Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) terminal moraines and deglaciation in the central Brooks Range. 10 Be ages from moraine boulders indicate that the LGM culminated at ca. 21 ka and was followed by substantial retreat upvalley prior to a second moraine-building episode culminating at ca. 17 ka. Subsequent rapid deglaciation occurred between ca. 16 ka and 15 ka, when glaciers receded to within their Neoglacial limits. Initial deglaciation after the LGM was likely caused by ice sheet–induced atmospheric circulation changes and increasing insolation. Brooks Range glaciers largely disappeared during Heinrich Stadial 1, prior to significant warming in the North Atlantic region during the Bolling-Allerod, but coincident with global CO 2 rise. Glacier fluctuations during the late-glacial period, if any, were restricted to within their Neoglacial extents. This new chronology suggests that ice sheet–modulated atmospheric circulation and global CO 2 dominate glacial climate forcings in Arctic Alaska.