Mark G. Flanner

Present‐day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow

and +0.049 (0.007–0.12) W m � 2 , respectively. Snow forcing from only fossil fuel + biofuel sources is +0.043 W m � 2 (forcing from only fossil fuels is +0.033 W m � 2 ), suggesting that the anthropogenic contribution to total forcing is at least 80%. The 1998 global land and sea-ice snowpack absorbed 0.60 and 0.23 W m � 2 , respectively, because of direct BC/snow forcing. The forcing is maximum coincidentally with snowmelt onset, triggering strong snow-albedo feedback in local springtime. Consequently, the ‘‘efficacy’’ of BC/snow forcing is more than three times greater than forcing by CO2. The 1998 and 2001 land snowmelt rates north of 50N are 28% and 19% greater in the month preceding maximum melt of control simulations without BC in snow. With climate feedbacks, global annual mean 2-meter air temperature warms 0.15 and 0.10C, when BC is included in snow, whereas annual arctic warming is 1.61 and 0.50C. Stronger highlatitude climate response in 1998 than 2001 is at least partially caused by boreal fires, which account for nearly all of the 35% biomass burning contribution to 1998 arctic forcing. Efficacy was anomalously large in this experiment, however, and more research is required to elucidate the role of boreal fires, which we suggest have maximum arctic BC/snow forcing potential during April–June. Model BC concentrations in snow agree reasonably well (r = 0.78) with a set of 23 observations from various locations, spanning nearly 4 orders of magnitude. We predict concentrations in excess of 1000 ng g � 1 for snow in northeast China, enough to lower snow albedo by more than 0.13. The greatest instantaneous forcing is over the Tibetan Plateau, exceeding 20 W m � 2 in some places during spring. These results indicate that snow darkening is an important component of carbon aerosol climate forcing.

The Impact of Boreal Forest Fire on Climate Warming

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (–2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

20th-Century Industrial Black Carbon Emissions Altered Arctic Climate Forcing

Black carbon (BC) from biomass and fossil fuel combustion alters chemical and physical properties of the atmosphere and snow albedo, yet little is known about its emission or deposition histories. Measurements of BC, vanillic acid, and non–sea-salt sulfur in ice cores indicate that sources and concentrations of BC in Greenland precipitation varied greatly since 1788 as a result of boreal forest fires and industrial activities. Beginning about 1850, industrial emissions resulted in a sevenfold increase in ice-core BC concentrations, with most change occurring in winter. BC concentrations after about 1951 were lower but increasing. At its maximum from 1906 to 1910, estimated surface climate forcing in early summer from BC in Arctic snow was about 3 watts per square meter, which is eight times the typical preindustrial forcing value.

The CCSM4 land simulation, 1850-2005: Assessment of surface climate and new capabilities

AbstractThis paper reviews developments for the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), examines the land surface climate simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) compared to CCSM3, and assesses new earth system features of CLM4 within CCSM4. CLM4 incorporates a broad set of improvements including additions of a carbon–nitrogen (CN) biogeochemical model, an urban canyon model, and transient land cover and land use change, as well as revised soil and snow submodels.Several aspects of the surface climate simulation are improved in CCSM4. Improvements in the simulation of soil water storage, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and permafrost that are apparent in offline CLM4 simulations are generally retained in CCSM4. The global land air temperature bias is reduced and the annual cycle is improved in many locations, especially at high latitudes. The global land precipitation bias is larger in CCSM4 because of bigger wet biases in central and southern Africa and Australia.New earth...

Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860–2000 AD

A Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860–2000 AD and analyzed at high resolution for black carbon (BC) using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) demonstrates strong seasonality, with peak concentrations during the winter-spring, and low concentrations during the summer monsoon season. BC concentrations from 1975–2000 relative to 1860–1975 have increased approximately threefold, indicating that BC from anthropogenic sources is being transported to high elevation regions of the Himalaya. The timing of the increase in BC is consistent with BC emission inventory data from South Asia and the Middle East, however since 1990 the ice core BC record does not indicate continually increasing BC concentrations. The Everest BC and dust records provide information about absorbing impurities that can contribute to glacier melt by reducing the albedo of snow and ice. There is no increasing trend in dust concentrations since 1860, and estimated surface radiative forcing due to BC in snow exceeds that of dust in snow. This suggests that a reduction in BC emissions may be an effective means to reduce the effect of absorbing impurities on snow albedo and melt, which affects Himalayan glaciers and the availability of water resources in major Asian rivers.

Instruments and Methods Contact spectroscopy for determination of stratigraphy of snow optical grain size

We present a technique for in situ measurement of the vertical and spatial stratigraphic distribution of snow optical grain size with a coupled contact illumination probe and field spectroradiometer. Accurate measurements of optical-equivalent grain size are critical for modeling radiative properties of snow such as spectral albedo and microwave emission. Measurements of the spectral reflectance of the snow-pit surface are made at 2 cm intervals in the vertical plane under constant illumination and view geometries. We invert the integral of the continuum normalization of the ice absorption feature with maximum at 1.03 mm wavelength for optical-equivalent grain size using the validated model of Nolin and Dozier (2000) that has accuracy of � 10-50 mm across the grain-size range 50-900 mm. Results are presented for an alpine site in southwest Colorado, USA, across the ablation season and for a Greenland ice-sheet site at the onset of snowmelt. These results suggest that traditional measurements of grain size using a hand lens are nearly accurate only for rounded grains (R 2 ¼ 0.41, rmse ¼ 160 mm); for polycrystals and faceted grains the hand-lens approach is very inaccurate (R 2 ¼ 0.03 and 0.24, rmse ¼ 1206 and 1010 mm, respectively). We demonstrate an order-of- magnitude improvement in modeling of shortwave spectral albedo and net shortwave flux with contact spectroscopy measurements of grain-size stratigraphy over those from a hand lens.

Snowpack radiative heating: Influence on Tibetan Plateau climate

Solar absorption decays exponentially with depth in snowpacks. However, most climate models constrain all snowpack absorption to occur uniformly in the top-most snow layer. We show that 20–45% of solar absorption by deep snowpacks occurs more than 2 cm beneath the surface. Accounting for vertically-resolved solar heating alters steady-state snow mass without changing bulk snow albedo, and ice-albedo feedback amplifies this effect. Vertically-resolved snowpack heating reduces winter snow mass on the Tibetan Plateau by 80% in one GCM, and significantly increases 2 m air temperature. These changes significantly reduce model-measurement discrepancies. Our results demonstrate that snowpack radiative heating plays a significant role in regulating surface climate and hydrology. More accurate snowpack radiation has the potential to improve predictions of related climate processes, such as spring runoff and the Asian Monsoon.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

Radiative forcing of organic aerosol in the atmosphere and on snow: Effects of SOA and brown carbon

Organic aerosols (OA) play an important role in climate change. However, very few calculations of global OA radiative forcing include secondary organic aerosol (SOA) or the light-absorbing part of OA (brown carbon). Here we use a global model to assess the radiative forcing associated with the change in primary organic aerosol (POA) and SOA between present-day and preindustrial conditions in both the atmosphere and the land snow/sea ice. Anthropogenic emissions are shown to substantially influence the SOA formation rate, causing it to increase by 29 Tg/yr (93%) since preindustrial times. We examine the effects of varying the refractive indices, size distributions for POA and SOA, and brown carbon fraction in SOA. The increase of SOA exerts a direct forcing ranging from −0.12 to −0.31 W m−2 and a first indirect forcing in warm-phase clouds ranging from −0.22 to −0.29 W m−2, with the range due to different assumed SOA size distributions and refractive indices. The increase of POA since preindustrial times causes a direct forcing varying from −0.06 to −0.11 W m−2, when strongly and weakly absorbing refractive indices for brown carbon are used. The change in the total OA exerts a direct forcing ranging from −0.14 to −0.40 W m−2. The atmospheric absorption from brown carbon ranges from +0.22 to +0.57 W m−2, which corresponds to 27%~70% of the black carbon (BC) absorption predicted in the model. The radiative forcing of OA deposited in land snow and sea ice ranges from +0.0011 to +0.0031 W m−2 or as large as 24% of the forcing caused by BC in snow and ice simulated by the model.

End of the Little Ice Age in the Alps forced by industrial black carbon.

Significance The end of the Little Ice Age in the European Alps has long been a paradox to glaciology and climatology. Glaciers in the Alps began to retreat abruptly in the mid-19th century, but reconstructions of temperature and precipitation indicate that glaciers should have instead advanced into the 20th century. We observe that industrial black carbon in snow began to increase markedly in the mid-19th century and show with simulations that the associated increases in absorbed sunlight by black carbon in snow and snowmelt were of sufficient magnitude to cause this scale of glacier retreat. This hypothesis offers a physically based explanation for the glacier retreat that maintains consistency with the temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat abruptly from their mid-19th century maximum, marking what appeared to be the end of the Little Ice Age. Alpine temperature and precipitation records suggest that glaciers should instead have continued to grow until circa 1910. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow may represent the driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps that began in the mid-19th century. Ice cores indicate that black carbon concentrations increased abruptly in the mid-19th century and largely continued to increase into the 20th century, consistent with known increases in black carbon emissions from the industrialization of Western Europe. Inferred annual surface radiative forcings increased stepwise to 13–17 W⋅m−2 between 1850 and 1880, and to 9–22 W⋅m−2 in the early 1900s, with snowmelt season (April/May/June) forcings reaching greater than 35 W⋅m−2 by the early 1900s. These snowmelt season radiative forcings would have resulted in additional annual snow melting of as much as 0.9 m water equivalent across the melt season. Simulations of glacier mass balances with radiative forcing-equivalent changes in atmospheric temperatures result in conservative estimates of accumulating negative mass balances of magnitude −15 m water equivalent by 1900 and −30 m water equivalent by 1930, magnitudes and timing consistent with the observed retreat. These results suggest a possible physical explanation for the abrupt retreat of glaciers in the Alps in the mid-19th century that is consistent with existing temperature and precipitation records and reconstructions.